Closing spread
NE -18
Total
48.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.076
- 42.6%Success rate41.5%
- +0.065EPA / dropback+0.002
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.268
- 9.2%Explosive rate6.3%
- -2.06CPOE-2.66
- 39.1%Third-down rate35.1%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 1.85Points / drive1.62
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/28 | 264 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 21 | 83 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 4 | 8 | 56 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 4 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Matt LaCosse | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 4 | 19 | 1 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 7/18 | 97 | 0 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 11/21 | 89 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Mark Walton | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Williams | 4 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 5 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 3 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Mark Walton | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.97