2019 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

43·0

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NE -18

Total

48.5

Model margin

-1.0est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.010EPA / play-0.076
  • 42.6%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.065EPA / dropback+0.002
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.268
  • 9.2%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -2.06CPOE-2.66
  • 39.1%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.62
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 29–25 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE
2022 · W1NE @ MIA7–20MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–MIA
MIAQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:381157Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 7:46832Punt7–0
NEQ1 2:59523Punt7–0
MIAQ2 14:4839Punt7–0
NEQ2 12:38841Missed field goal7–0
MIAQ2 8:2236Punt7–0
NEQ2 7:301165Touchdown13–0
MIAQ2 1:1937Punt13–0
NEQ2 0:1300End of half13–0
NEQ3 15:00421Punt13–0
MIAQ3 12:4330Turnover13–0
NEQ3 12:26926Field goal16–0
MIAQ3 8:453-2Punt16–0
NEQ3 7:261075Touchdown23–0
MIAQ3 2:183-11Punt23–0
NEQ3 0:30610Punt23–0
MIAQ4 12:56518Opp touchdown30–0
MIAQ4 10:45437Opp touchdown37–0
MIAQ4 8:571024Turnover on downs37–0
NEQ4 5:5112Turnover37–0
MIAQ4 5:4340Turnover on downs37–0
NEQ4 5:09559Touchdown43–0
MIAQ4 2:101067Turnover43–0

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady20/2826420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel21834.01
Rex Burkhead5214.20
James White3103.30
Antonio Brown155.00
Tom Brady210.51
Julian Edelman111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown48561
Julian Edelman44510
Rex Burkhead22470
Phillip Dorsett33390
Matt LaCosse22330
Josh Gordon25190
James White34191

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Rosen7/189701
Ryan Fitzpatrick11/218903

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake6193.20
Mark Walton3155.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick166.00
Kalen Ballage461.50
Jakeem Grant1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Preston Williams46630
Kenyan Drake56290
Durham Smythe11240
Jakeem Grant37220
Allen Hurns12130
Mark Walton12120
Mike Gesicki12110
Nick O'Leary1160
Kalen Ballage1560
DeVante Parker0700

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -182.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.4%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.97