Closing spread
NE -20.5
Total
43
Model margin
+9.2est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play+0.010
- 37.3%Success rate42.6%
- -0.119EPA / dropback+0.065
- -0.216EPA / rush-0.078
- 6.9%Explosive rate9.2%
- +0.20CPOE-2.06
- 30.8%Third-down rate39.1%
- 48.5%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.20Points / drive1.85
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Falk | 12/22 | 98 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 18 | 35 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 28/42 | 306 | 2 | 0 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 2/3 | 14 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 9 | 11 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Josh Gordon | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 6 | 11 | 83 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 7 | 10 | 62 | 1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 6 | 7 | 53 | 1 |
| Ryan Izzo | 1 | 1 | 41 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 6 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.5%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+4.56
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+9.16