2019 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Luke Falk

14·30

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NE -20.5

Total

43

Model margin

+9.2est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.155EPA / play+0.010
  • 37.3%Success rate42.6%
  • -0.119EPA / dropback+0.065
  • -0.216EPA / rush-0.078
  • 6.9%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +0.20CPOE-2.06
  • 30.8%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 48.5%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.85
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NE
NYJQ1 15:00526Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:26988Touchdown0–6
NYJQ1 7:553-13Punt0–6
NEQ1 5:47345Touchdown0–13
NYJQ1 4:2531Punt0–13
NEQ1 2:581059Touchdown0–20
NYJQ2 13:34411Punt0–20
NEQ2 11:316-10Punt0–20
NYJQ2 9:59413Punt0–20
NEQ2 7:10519Punt0–20
NYJQ2 4:19421Punt0–20
NEQ2 2:17616Punt0–20
NYJQ2 0:3418End of half0–20
NEQ3 15:00512Punt0–20
NYJQ3 13:0938Turnover0–20
NEQ3 11:36523Field goal0–23
NYJQ3 8:4941Punt0–23
NEQ3 7:471075Touchdown0–30
NYJQ3 3:07719Touchdown7–30
NEQ3 0:21535Punt7–30
NYJQ4 11:2651Punt7–30
NEQ4 8:4147Opp touchdown14–30
NEQ4 6:2338Punt14–30
NYJQ4 4:4638Punt14–30
NEQ4 2:3335Punt14–30
NYJQ4 1:3941Turnover on downs14–30
NEQ4 0:4900End of half14–30

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Luke Falk12/229801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell18351.90
Ty Montgomery210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Braxton Berrios26290
Le'Veon Bell44280
Jamison Crowder25250
Robbie Chosen35110
Ryan Griffin1150
Ty Montgomery0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady28/4230620
Jarrett Stidham2/31401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rex Burkhead11474.31
Phillip Dorsett2126.00
Sony Michel9111.21
Josh Gordon111.00
Tom Brady2-1-0.50
Brandon Bolden2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon611830
Julian Edelman710621
Phillip Dorsett67531
Ryan Izzo11410
Jakobi Meyers23380
Rex Burkhead67220
Brandon Bolden23210
Sony Michel0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +20.53.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.8%2.5%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

72.5%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.56
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+9.16