Closing spread
LAC -4
Total
46
Model margin
+2.2est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.054EPA / play+0.036
- 40.3%Success rate47.3%
- -0.019EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.118
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- -2.47CPOE+3.58
- 32.0%Third-down rate45.5%
- 50.1%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.47Points / drive1.99
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. LAC are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 14/20 | 182 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 15 | 114 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Royce Freeman | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Diontae Spencer | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 7 | 92 | 1 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 32/48 | 211 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 15 | 16 | 86 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 6 | 13 | 74 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 4 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.50
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.24