Closing spread
IND -1.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play+0.009
- 45.6%Success rate44.5%
- +0.132EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.071EPA / rush+0.022
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.12CPOE-3.86
- 43.7%Third-down rate41.9%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 2.18Points / drive1.94
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 23/34 | 308 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Keke Coutee | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9 | 12 | 106 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 4 | 5 | 105 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Keke Coutee | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 26/39 | 326 | 4 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Pascal | 6 | 7 | 106 | 2 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 6 | 11 | 74 | 1 |
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 5 | 70 | 1 |
| Chester Rogers | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.08