2019 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

23·30

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -1.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapColts
  • +0.057EPA / play+0.009
  • 45.6%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.132EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.071EPA / rush+0.022
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +1.12CPOE-3.86
  • 43.7%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 2.18Points / drive1.94
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–IND
HOUQ1 15:00837Punt0–0
INDQ1 10:001294Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 5:01628Punt0–7
INDQ1 1:48815Turnover on downs0–7
HOUQ2 13:04731Field goal3–7
INDQ2 8:5946Turnover3–7
HOUQ2 7:273-9Field goal6–7
INDQ2 6:25980Touchdown6–14
HOUQ2 1:49767Field goal9–14
INDQ2 0:2300End of half9–14
INDQ3 15:00874Touchdown9–21
HOUQ3 10:29575Touchdown16–21
INDQ3 8:431781Touchdown16–28
HOUQ3 1:14822Turnover on downs16–28
INDQ4 13:0236Punt16–28
HOUQ4 12:09648Turnover16–28
INDQ4 9:3131Punt16–28
HOUQ4 8:41679Touchdown23–28
INDQ4 6:38427Punt23–28
HOUQ4 4:094-4Safety23–30
INDQ4 2:4131Punt23–30
HOUQ4 1:41417Turnover23–30
INDQ4 0:2600End of half23–30

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson23/3430812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde12352.90
Duke Johnson7344.90
Deshaun Watson33210.70
Keke Coutee144.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins9121061
Kenny Stills451050
Darren Fells22270
Keke Coutee35250
Duke Johnson25220
Jordan Akins22170
Will Fuller1160
Carlos Hyde0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett26/3932640
Zach Pascal0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack18442.40
Jordan Wilkins294.50
Jacoby Brissett561.20
Nyheim Hines133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Pascal671062
T.Y. Hilton611741
Eric Ebron45701
Chester Rogers22240
Jack Doyle35210
Nyheim Hines12130
Marlon Mack33120
Jordan Wilkins1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.0%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.08