Closing spread
BUF -17
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.023
- 41.5%Success rate41.8%
- +0.002EPA / dropback+0.020
- -0.268EPA / rush-0.085
- 6.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- -2.66CPOE-2.62
- 35.1%Third-down rate35.9%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 1.62Points / drive1.56
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 23/35 | 282 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Walton | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Kalen Ballage | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Williams | 6 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 10 | 55 | 1 |
| Allen Hurns | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Walton | 1 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16/26 | 202 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 11 | 55 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 5 | 6 | 83 | 1 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Duke Williams | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 6 | 16 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.49
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.79