Closing spread
BUF -17
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Dolphins
- OutAvery MossDEAnkle· DNP
- OutDaniel KilgoreCKnee· DNP
- OutReshad JonesSChest· DNP
- QuestionableJakeem GrantWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableXavien HowardCBKnee· Limited
- LimitedAlbert WilsonWRCalf
- LimitedBobby McCainSHamstring
- LimitedChris LammonsCBAnkle
- LimitedJesse DavisTElbow
- LimitedMark WaltonRBThumb
- LimitedTrent HarrisLBFoot
Bills
- QuestionableCorey ThompsonLBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMatt MilanoLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableTaron JohnsonCBHamstring· Full
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.023
- 41.5%Success rate41.8%
- +0.002EPA / dropback+0.020
- -0.268EPA / rush-0.085
- 6.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- -2.66CPOE-2.62
- 35.1%Third-down rate35.9%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 1.62Points / drive1.56
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 44 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q1 10:54 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 7:04 | 7 | 55 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| MIA | Q1 3:48 | 9 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| BUF | Q2 14:49 | 9 | 59 | Field goal | 7–9 |
| MIA | Q2 10:06 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 14–9 |
| BUF | Q2 5:51 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 14–9 |
| MIA | Q2 4:26 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 14–9 |
| BUF | Q2 2:06 | 3 | -3 | End of half | 14–9 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 19 | 71 | Turnover | 14–9 |
| BUF | Q3 5:01 | 12 | 108 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| MIA | Q4 13:50 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 14–17 |
| BUF | Q4 11:05 | 4 | 29 | Punt | 14–17 |
| MIA | Q4 8:56 | 2 | 19 | Turnover | 14–17 |
| BUF | Q4 7:57 | 3 | 16 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| MIA | Q4 6:31 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 14–24 |
| BUF | Q4 4:59 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–24 |
| MIA | Q4 3:59 | 12 | 59 | Touchdown | 21–30 |
| BUF | Q4 1:45 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 21–31 |
| MIA | Q4 1:38 | 4 | 64 | End of half | 21–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 23/35 | 282 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Walton | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Kalen Ballage | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Williams | 6 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 10 | 55 | 1 |
| Allen Hurns | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Walton | 1 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16/26 | 202 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 11 | 55 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 5 | 6 | 83 | 1 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Duke Williams | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 6 | 16 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.49
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.79