Closing spread
NE -9.5
Total
43
Model margin
-1.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Patriots
- OutJosh GordonWRKnee· DNP
- OutMatt LaCosseTEKnee· DNP
- OutRyan IzzoTEConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableGunner OlszewskiWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableJulian EdelmanWRChest· Limited
- QuestionablePatrick ChungSHeel· Limited
- QuestionablePhillip DorsettWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableRex BurkheadRBFoot· Limited
Jets
- OutAlbert McClellanLBConcussion· DNP
- DoubtfulChristopher HerndonTEHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulHenry AndersonDEShoulder· DNP
- DoubtfulKelechi OsemeleGShoulder· DNP
- DoubtfulKelvin BeachumTAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulNeville HewittLBNeck· DNP
- DoubtfulTrenton CannonRBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableAlex LewisGNeck· Limited
- QuestionableBrian WintersGShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableC.J. MosleyLBGroin· Limited
- QuestionableDarryl RobertsCBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableDemaryius ThomasWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableNate HairstonCBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableRyan KalilCShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableSteve McLendonDTHamstring· Limited
- DNPRontez MilesSNot Injury Related
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.155
- 42.6%Success rate37.3%
- +0.065EPA / dropback-0.119
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.216
- 9.2%Explosive rate6.9%
- -2.06CPOE+0.20
- 39.1%Third-down rate30.8%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate48.5%
- 1.85Points / drive1.20
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 43–14 since 1999
NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 16 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 6:13 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 5:16 | 3 | -4 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 3:49 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–0 |
| NE | Q1 2:29 | 7 | 67 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 0:09 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| NE | Q2 14:11 | 10 | 46 | Touchdown | 24–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 9:18 | 10 | 18 | Turnover | 24–0 |
| NE | Q2 5:25 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 24–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 3:31 | 8 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 24–0 |
| NE | Q2 1:13 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 24–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–0 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 27 | Turnover | 24–0 |
| NE | Q3 11:02 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 24–0 |
| NYJ | Q3 8:25 | 2 | 3 | Safety | 26–0 |
| NE | Q3 7:41 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 26–0 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:02 | 5 | 2 | Turnover | 26–0 |
| NE | Q3 6:08 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 26–0 |
| NYJ | Q3 3:42 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 26–0 |
| NE | Q3 2:14 | 11 | 59 | Touchdown | 33–0 |
| NYJ | Q4 12:32 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 33–0 |
| NE | Q4 12:03 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 33–0 |
| NYJ | Q4 9:37 | 9 | 48 | Punt | 33–0 |
| NE | Q4 6:07 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 33–0 |
| NE | Q4 2:55 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 33–0 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:50 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 33–0 |
| NE | Q4 1:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 33–0 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 31/45 | 249 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 19 | 42 | 2.2 | 3 |
| Julian Edelman | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| James White | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 7 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 7 | 12 | 47 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 3 | 4 | 46 | 1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 11/32 | 86 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.6%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.28