Closing spread
NE -9.5
Total
43
Model margin
-1.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.155
- 42.6%Success rate37.3%
- +0.065EPA / dropback-0.119
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.216
- 9.2%Explosive rate6.9%
- -2.06CPOE+0.20
- 39.1%Third-down rate30.8%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate48.5%
- 1.85Points / drive1.20
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 31/45 | 249 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 19 | 42 | 2.2 | 3 |
| Julian Edelman | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| James White | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 7 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 7 | 12 | 47 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 3 | 4 | 46 | 1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 11/32 | 86 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.6%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.28