2019 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

26·3

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Gardner Minshew

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

JAX -1

Total

46

Model margin

+1.2est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJaguars
  • +0.057EPA / play-0.053
  • 45.6%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.132EPA / dropback-0.010
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.145
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +1.12CPOE-3.03
  • 43.7%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 2.18Points / drive1.61
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–JAX
HOUQ1 15:001477Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 8:20520Punt3–0
HOUQ1 5:30620Punt3–0
JAXQ1 2:27520Punt3–0
HOUQ2 14:091480Touchdown9–0
JAXQ2 5:551063Field goal9–3
HOUQ2 1:48945Missed field goal9–3
JAXQ2 0:06117End of half9–3
JAXQ3 15:001134Turnover on downs9–3
HOUQ3 8:56726Field goal12–3
JAXQ3 4:57613Punt12–3
HOUQ3 2:50579Touchdown19–3
JAXQ3 0:311455Turnover on downs19–3
HOUQ4 10:58419Punt19–3
JAXQ4 8:09531Turnover19–3
HOUQ4 6:31461Turnover19–3
JAXQ4 4:4310Turnover19–3
HOUQ4 4:2923Touchdown26–3
JAXQ4 4:19237Turnover26–3
HOUQ4 3:3930Punt26–3
JAXQ4 1:50766Turnover26–3

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson22/2820120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde191608.40
Deshaun Watson7375.30
Duke Johnson7131.91
DeAndre Hopkins166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Duke Johnson55680
Kenny Stills44520
DeAndre Hopkins811481
Jordan Akins33240
DeAndre Carter1180
Darren Fells1311
Steven Mitchell0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew27/4730902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette11403.60
Gardner Minshew4348.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keelan Cole56800
Ryquell Armstead55650
Seth DeValve45410
Chris Conley27320
Leonard Fournette56320
DJ Chark49320
C.J. Board13230
Josh Oliver1240
Ben Koyack0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.21