Closing spread
JAX -1
Total
46
Model margin
+1.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play-0.053
- 45.6%Success rate39.3%
- +0.132EPA / dropback-0.010
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.145
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.4%
- +1.12CPOE-3.03
- 43.7%Third-down rate35.4%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 2.18Points / drive1.61
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. JAX are 20-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 22/28 | 201 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 19 | 160 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 8 | 11 | 48 | 1 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Steven Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 27/47 | 309 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelan Cole | 5 | 6 | 80 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 5 | 5 | 65 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 5 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 4 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| C.J. Board | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Ben Koyack | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.53
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.21