2019 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

26·9

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

NO -14

Total

51.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

NO perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSaints
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.084
  • 44.5%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.172
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.067
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +2.32CPOE+3.92
  • 41.8%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.45
  • 2.0%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NO
ATLQ1 15:001061Field goal3–0
NOQ1 9:27964Field goal3–3
ATLQ1 4:091960Touchdown10–3
NOQ2 11:0936Punt10–3
ATLQ2 9:17414Punt10–3
NOQ2 6:47622Punt10–3
ATLQ2 2:48765Field goal13–3
NOQ2 1:31963Field goal13–6
NOQ3 15:00522Punt13–6
ATLQ3 12:11617Punt13–6
NOQ3 9:24828Field goal13–9
ATLQ3 6:051470Touchdown20–9
NOQ4 14:5341Punt20–9
ATLQ4 12:311022Field goal23–9
NOQ4 7:27514Turnover on downs23–9
ATLQ4 5:2732Turnover23–9
NOQ4 4:0548Turnover on downs23–9
ATLQ4 3:3336Field goal26–9
NOQ4 2:321182Turnover on downs26–9

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan20/3518221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Hill20613.00
Devonta Freeman10383.80
Calvin Ridley11919.00
Matt Ryan2136.50
Kenjon Barner11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones39790
Calvin Ridley35280
Russell Gage45230
Austin Hooper45171
Christian Blake22150
Devonta Freeman34100
Brian Hill12101

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees32/4528700
Taysom Hill1/11700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara4246.00
Latavius Murray5122.40
Taysom Hill11111.00
Ted Ginn155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas13141520
Jared Cook610740
Alvin Kamara810500
Tre'Quan Smith12130
Latavius Murray2270
Taysom Hill1130
Ted Ginn0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.77