Closing spread
NO -14
Total
51.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.084
- 44.5%Success rate47.0%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.172
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.067
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- +2.32CPOE+3.92
- 41.8%Third-down rate43.9%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 2.01Points / drive2.45
- 2.0%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 20/35 | 182 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hill | 20 | 61 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 3 | 9 | 79 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 5 | 17 | 1 |
| Christian Blake | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 32/45 | 287 | 0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 13 | 14 | 152 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 6 | 10 | 74 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 8 | 10 | 50 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.03
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.77