2019 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

29·3

Panthers

Carolina

QB Kyle Allen

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

CAR -3.5

Total

49

Model margin

-1.5est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.014EPA / play-0.082
  • 44.5%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.106
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +2.32CPOE-2.45
  • 41.8%Third-down rate32.4%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.56
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
ATLQ1 15:00755Field goal3–0
CARQ1 11:3936Turnover3–0
ATLQ1 10:45715Missed field goal3–0
CARQ1 6:343-6Punt3–0
ATLQ1 5:0035Punt3–0
CARQ1 3:3551Opp touchdown10–0
CARQ1 0:591260Turnover10–0
ATLQ2 10:42975Field goal13–0
CARQ2 5:42412Punt13–0
ATLQ2 2:57875Touchdown20–0
CARQ2 1:341070Turnover20–0
ATLQ2 0:0300End of half20–0
CARQ3 15:00944Turnover on downs20–0
ATLQ3 11:321053Touchdown26–0
CARQ3 6:40518Turnover on downs26–0
ATLQ3 4:563-8Punt26–0
CARQ3 2:491178Field goal26–3
ATLQ4 13:001274Field goal29–3
CARQ4 7:01969Turnover29–3
ATLQ4 4:4137Punt29–3
CARQ4 1:473-5Punt29–3
ATLQ4 0:1100End of half29–3

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan21/3131110
Kenjon Barner1/1300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Hill15302.00
Kenjon Barner2157.50
Qadree Ollison4112.81
Matt Ryan200.00
Matt Schaub1-1-1.00
Julio Jones1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley881431
Julio Jones68910
Russell Gage24320
Jaeden Graham22230
Justin Hardy24140
Brian Hill1380
Christian Blake1130
Qadree Ollison0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Allen31/5032504

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey14705.00
Kyle Allen177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey11151210
DJ Moore815950
Greg Olsen55570
Curtis Samuel46250
Jarius Wright12190
Reggie Bonnafon2380
Ian Thomas0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.2%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.46