Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
-1.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play-0.082
- 44.5%Success rate43.3%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.106
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.4%
- +2.32CPOE-2.45
- 41.8%Third-down rate32.4%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 2.01Points / drive1.56
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 21/31 | 311 | 1 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hill | 15 | 30 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Qadree Ollison | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 8 | 8 | 143 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 6 | 8 | 91 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Jaeden Graham | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Christian Blake | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Qadree Ollison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 31/50 | 325 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Allen | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 11 | 15 | 121 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 8 | 15 | 95 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Reggie Bonnafon | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.2%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.20
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.46