Closing spread
BUF -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.076
- 41.8%Success rate41.5%
- +0.020EPA / dropback+0.002
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.268
- 10.1%Explosive rate6.3%
- -2.62CPOE-2.66
- 35.9%Third-down rate35.1%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 1.56Points / drive1.62
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 21/33 | 256 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 15 | 75 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 7 | 56 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 9 | 14 | 137 | 2 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 32/45 | 323 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalen Ballage | 9 | 9 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Patrick Laird | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 7 | 10 | 135 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 6 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 5 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.49
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.25