2019 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

37·20

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

BUF -7

Total

41.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.076
  • 41.8%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.020EPA / dropback+0.002
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.268
  • 10.1%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -2.62CPOE-2.66
  • 35.9%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 58.3%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.62
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIA
BUFQ1 15:00642Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 12:0432Punt3–0
BUFQ1 9:461222Field goal6–0
MIAQ1 4:2979Punt6–0
BUFQ1 0:21581Touchdown13–0
MIAQ2 13:0940Punt13–0
BUFQ2 11:02667Field goal16–0
MIAQ2 7:41413Punt16–0
BUFQ2 6:243-1Punt16–0
MIAQ2 5:36568Touchdown16–7
BUFQ2 3:3900Turnover16–7
MIAQ2 3:39120Turnover16–7
BUFQ2 3:33664Touchdown23–13
MIAQ2 1:2300Touchdown23–14
BUFQ2 1:0933Punt23–14
MIAQ2 0:4720End of half23–14
MIAQ3 15:0078Punt23–14
BUFQ3 11:48953Touchdown30–14
MIAQ3 6:5559Punt30–14
BUFQ3 4:3937Punt30–14
MIAQ3 3:21850Touchdown30–20
BUFQ4 14:35972Touchdown37–20
MIAQ4 10:3857Turnover on downs37–20
BUFQ4 8:3958Punt37–20
MIAQ4 8:021188Turnover on downs37–20
BUFQ4 3:4037Punt37–20
MIAQ4 2:02629Turnover on downs37–20
BUFQ4 0:4000End of half37–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen21/3325630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary15755.00
Josh Allen7568.01
Frank Gore11272.50
Isaiah McKenzie11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown9141372
Cole Beasley44380
Dawson Knox23321
Isaiah McKenzie36210
Frank Gore12180
Tyler Kroft1160
Devin Singletary1140

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick32/4532300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kalen Ballage991.01
Jakeem Grant177.01
Patrick Laird177.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick100.00
Myles Gaskin100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker7101350
Allen Hurns46530
Patrick Laird66510
Jakeem Grant33320
Albert Wilson36260
Mike Gesicki46180
Kalen Ballage5680
Myles Gaskin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

4.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.25