2019 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

24·17

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

Azteca Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

KC -5.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapChargers
  • +0.135EPA / play+0.036
  • 47.0%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.247EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.118
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +1.86CPOE+3.58
  • 48.7%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 2.59Points / drive1.99
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 32–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. LAC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6LAC @ KC6–22KC
2025 · W15LAC @ KC16–13CHARGERS
2025 · W1KC @ LAC21–27CHARGERS
2024 · W14LAC @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W4KC @ LAC17–10KC
2023 · W18KC @ LAC13–12KC
2023 · W7LAC @ KC17–31KC
2022 · W11KC @ LAC30–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–LAC
LACQ1 15:00868Field goal0–3
KCQ1 9:31714Punt0–3
LACQ1 7:38638Missed field goal0–3
KCQ1 4:37530Turnover0–3
LACQ1 2:10746Turnover0–3
KCQ2 13:29412Punt0–3
LACQ2 11:33629Turnover6–3
KCQ2 8:5016Touchdown7–3
LACQ2 8:45867Field goal7–6
KCQ2 5:01847Field goal10–6
LACQ2 1:43964Field goal10–9
KCQ3 15:001180Touchdown17–9
LACQ3 9:2932Punt17–9
KCQ3 8:16749Touchdown24–9
LACQ3 4:56823Touchdown24–17
KCQ3 1:44515Punt24–17
LACQ4 14:42418Punt24–17
KCQ4 12:16928Punt24–17
LACQ4 8:0536Punt24–17
KCQ4 6:0737Punt24–17
LACQ4 4:3030Turnover24–17
KCQ4 4:13623Punt24–17
LACQ4 1:531177Turnover24–17
KCQ4 0:1800End of half24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes19/3218211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Patrick Mahomes55911.80
Darrel Williams11353.21
LeSean McCoy7294.11
Damien Williams471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce710921
LeSean McCoy46280
Sammy Watkins23260
Mecole Hardman24130
Byron Pringle1190
Darrel Williams2380
Damien Williams1160
Demarcus Robinson0100
Tyreek Hill0200
Deon Yelder0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers28/5235314

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon14694.90
Austin Ekeler5244.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Ekeler8121080
Mike Williams26760
Keenan Allen812711
Hunter Henry69690
Melvin Gordon35210
Virgil Green1180
Troymaine Pope0100
Andre Patton0100
Jason Moore0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.4%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+0.12