Closing spread
KC -5.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.135EPA / play+0.036
- 47.0%Success rate47.3%
- +0.247EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.118
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.86CPOE+3.58
- 48.7%Third-down rate45.5%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 2.59Points / drive1.99
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. LAC are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 19/32 | 182 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 5 | 59 | 11.8 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Damien Williams | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 10 | 92 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Deon Yelder | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 28/52 | 353 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 8 | 12 | 108 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 6 | 76 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 12 | 71 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 6 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Troymaine Pope | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Patton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.12