2019 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

17·20

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

Total

46

Model margin

-0.0est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTexans
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.057
  • 44.5%Success rate45.6%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback+0.132
  • +0.022EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -3.86CPOE+1.12
  • 41.9%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.94Points / drive2.18
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–HOU
INDQ1 15:00611Punt0–0
HOUQ1 10:45934Punt0–0
INDQ1 6:28618Punt0–0
HOUQ1 3:12942Field goal0–3
INDQ2 13:421037Punt0–3
HOUQ2 8:0110Turnover0–3
INDQ2 7:55742Touchdown7–3
HOUQ2 4:28775Touchdown7–10
INDQ2 1:53858Field goal10–10
HOUQ3 15:00751Turnover on downs10–10
INDQ3 11:451166Touchdown17–10
INDQ3 5:3600Touchdown17–10
HOUQ3 5:36457Field goal17–13
INDQ3 2:4336Punt17–13
HOUQ3 1:11886Touchdown17–20
INDQ4 12:34522Punt17–20
HOUQ4 10:09627Punt17–20
INDQ4 7:281036Turnover on downs17–20
HOUQ4 2:49724Turnover on downs17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett16/2512900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Williams261044.01
Nyheim Hines9515.70
Jacoby Brissett4205.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Ebron45440
Jack Doyle34280
T.Y. Hilton36180
Jonathan Williams33170
Chester Rogers11120
Nyheim Hines23100
Marcus Johnson0100
Zach Pascal0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson19/3029821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde16674.20
Duke Johnson5224.40
Deshaun Watson3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Fuller7111400
DeAndre Hopkins68942
Jordan Akins34260
Darren Fells12240
Duke Johnson1180
Kenny Stills1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.0%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.04