Closing spread
HOU -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
-0.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.057
- 44.5%Success rate45.6%
- -0.001EPA / dropback+0.132
- +0.022EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.7%
- -3.86CPOE+1.12
- 41.9%Third-down rate43.7%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.94Points / drive2.18
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 16/25 | 129 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Williams | 26 | 104 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 9 | 51 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 19/30 | 298 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fuller | 7 | 11 | 140 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 8 | 94 | 2 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.04