Closing spread
LAC -4.5
Total
39
Model margin
+3.7est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.054
- 47.3%Success rate40.3%
- +0.118EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.110
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- +3.58CPOE-2.47
- 45.5%Third-down rate32.0%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
- 1.99Points / drive1.47
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 20/29 | 265 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 20 | 99 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 5 | 7 | 117 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 6 | 68 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 5 | 51 | 1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Andre Patton | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 18/28 | 134 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 5 | 74 | 2 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.50
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+2.90
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+3.66