2019 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

20·23

Broncos

Denver

QB Drew Lock

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

LAC -4.5

Total

39

Model margin

+3.7est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.036EPA / play-0.054
  • 47.3%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback-0.019
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.110
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +3.58CPOE-2.47
  • 45.5%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.47
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–DEN
DENQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
LACQ1 13:31615Punt0–0
DENQ1 10:281280Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 4:3335Turnover0–7
DENQ1 3:12618Touchdown0–14
LACQ1 0:161348Field goal3–14
DENQ2 9:27410Punt3–14
DENQ2 7:3938Field goal3–17
LACQ2 5:32521Punt3–17
DENQ2 2:2434Punt3–17
LACQ2 0:52382Touchdown10–17
DENQ2 0:30553End of half10–17
LACQ3 15:00941Punt10–17
DENQ3 10:20611Punt10–17
LACQ3 6:42828Punt10–17
DENQ3 1:5833Punt10–17
LACQ4 14:52562Touchdown17–17
DENQ4 12:1821Turnover17–17
LACQ4 11:3031Missed field goal17–17
DENQ4 9:14821Field goal17–20
LACQ4 4:26756Field goal20–20
DENQ4 0:1410Field goal20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers20/2926521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon20995.00
Austin Ekeler9161.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams571170
Keenan Allen66681
Austin Ekeler45511
Melvin Gordon23110
Hunter Henry23100
Andre Patton1280
Virgil Green0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock18/2813421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay17583.40
Drew Lock3155.00
Royce Freeman5112.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton45742
Jeff Heuerman35150
Royce Freeman44130
DaeSean Hamilton23120
Noah Fant1350
Phillip Lindsay3340
Tim Patrick0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.53.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.9%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.90
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin+3.66