Closing spread
NO -7
Total
48
Model margin
-0.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Saints
- OutAndrus PeatGForearm· DNP
- OutTerron ArmsteadTAnkle· DNP
- OutZach LineRBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableDeonte HartyWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableMarshon LattimoreCBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableWill ClappCBack· Limited
Falcons
- OutAustin HooperTEKnee· DNP
- QuestionableJulio JonesWRShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableLuke StockerTEBack· DNP
- QuestionableSharrod NeasmanSShoulder· Full
- LimitedTakkarist McKinleyDEShoulder
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play+0.014
- 47.0%Success rate44.5%
- +0.172EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.159
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- +3.92CPOE+2.32
- 43.9%Third-down rate41.8%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 2.45Points / drive2.01
- 0.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–23 since 1999
ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 13:03 | 4 | 30 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q1 11:07 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 7:45 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q1 4:48 | 11 | 36 | Turnover on downs | 7–0 |
| NO | Q2 14:57 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q2 13:31 | 4 | 20 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| NO | Q2 12:35 | 7 | 72 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| ATL | Q2 9:05 | 10 | 50 | Missed field goal | 10–6 |
| NO | Q2 3:57 | 4 | 68 | Touchdown | 17–6 |
| ATL | Q2 1:53 | 8 | 53 | Field goal | 17–9 |
| NO | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–9 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 17–9 |
| ATL | Q3 12:43 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 17–9 |
| NO | Q3 10:42 | 9 | 51 | Field goal | 20–9 |
| ATL | Q3 5:54 | 9 | 35 | Turnover | 20–9 |
| NO | Q3 1:52 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 20–9 |
| ATL | Q3 0:53 | 8 | 40 | Turnover | 20–9 |
| NO | Q4 11:45 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 23–9 |
| ATL | Q4 10:14 | 5 | 2 | Turnover | 23–9 |
| NO | Q4 8:41 | 5 | 12 | Field goal | 26–9 |
| ATL | Q4 6:27 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 26–15 |
| NO | Q4 3:26 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 26–15 |
| ATL | Q4 3:24 | 6 | 34 | Field goal | 26–18 |
| NO | Q4 1:56 | 0 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 26–18 |
| ATL | Q4 1:54 | 7 | -4 | Turnover on downs | 26–18 |
| NO | Q4 0:38 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 26–18 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 18/30 | 184 | 1 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 61 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cook | 3 | 6 | 85 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 6 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 35/50 | 312 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 17 | 51 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 8 | 10 | 91 | 0 |
| Christian Blake | 6 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 5 | 9 | 52 | 1 |
| Jaeden Graham | 4 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Justin Hardy | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 4 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
4.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.03
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.29