Closing spread
KC -11.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 15/29 | 175 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darwin Thompson | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Darrel Williams | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 9 | 90 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.81
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+4.03
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.