Closing spread
KC -11.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutHunter RenfrowWRRib· DNP
- QuestionableTrenton BrownTKnee· DNP
- LimitedDavid SharpeTCalf
- LimitedJosh JacobsRBShoulder
- LimitedLamarcus JoynerSHamstring
- LimitedRodney HudsonCAnkle
Chiefs
- OutDamien WilliamsRBRib· DNP
- DNPSammy WatkinsWRIllness
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 30 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:57 | 12 | 43 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 7:26 | 0 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 7:19 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 5:18 | 8 | 62 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 0:41 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q2 12:46 | 5 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| KC | Q2 9:53 | 9 | 55 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 6:28 | 5 | 14 | Opp touchdown | 0–21 |
| LV | Q2 3:42 | 6 | 50 | Missed field goal | 0–21 |
| KC | Q2 1:04 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–21 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 19 | Field goal | 0–24 |
| LV | Q3 12:03 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 0–24 |
| KC | Q3 9:06 | 5 | 52 | Touchdown | 0–31 |
| LV | Q3 6:51 | 12 | 60 | Field goal | 3–31 |
| KC | Q4 14:56 | 15 | 62 | Touchdown | 3–38 |
| LV | Q4 5:24 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 9–40 |
| KC | Q4 0:39 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 9–40 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 15/29 | 175 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darwin Thompson | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Darrel Williams | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 9 | 90 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.81
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+4.03
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.