2019 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Kyle Allen

20·40

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

48

Model margin

+5.2est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.082EPA / play+0.014
  • 43.3%Success rate44.5%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.159
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -2.45CPOE+2.32
  • 32.4%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 1.56Points / drive2.01
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00736Punt0–0
CARQ1 11:2334Punt0–0
ATLQ1 9:111265Field goal0–3
CARQ1 2:47847Field goal3–3
ATLQ2 14:51628Punt3–3
CARQ2 10:55716Punt3–3
ATLQ2 7:18674Touchdown3–10
CARQ2 5:15422Turnover3–10
ATLQ2 3:3232Punt3–10
CARQ2 2:34987Touchdown10–10
ATLQ2 1:05654Field goal10–13
CARQ3 15:00321Turnover10–13
ATLQ3 13:43641Touchdown10–20
CARQ3 11:08735Punt10–20
ATLQ3 7:33395Touchdown10–27
CARQ3 6:3000Field goal10–27
ATLQ3 6:2235Field goal10–30
CARQ3 4:55511Punt10–30
ATLQ3 2:4730Punt10–30
CARQ3 1:433-10Turnover10–30
ATLQ4 15:00617Field goal10–33
CARQ4 11:40827Field goal13–33
ATLQ4 7:54642Touchdown13–40
CARQ4 5:081485Touchdown20–40
ATLQ4 1:2613End of half20–40

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Allen28/4129312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey11534.80
Kyle Allen6244.01
Curtis Samuel3175.70
Reggie Bonnafon166.00
DJ Moore100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey1112820
DJ Moore46810
Ian Thomas510571
Jarius Wright45300
Curtis Samuel24250
Chris Manhertz11110
Brandon Zylstra1270

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan20/3431320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman17844.91
Brian Hill9626.91
Matt Ryan188.00
Qadree Ollison461.50
Matt Schaub1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Olamide Zaccheaus12931
Calvin Ridley55761
Julio Jones58660
Austin Hooper26320
Justin Hardy11190
Russell Gage24170
Devonta Freeman44100
Luke Stocker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.8%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+5.18