Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
48
Model margin
+5.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.082EPA / play+0.014
- 43.3%Success rate44.5%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.159
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.4%
- -2.45CPOE+2.32
- 32.4%Third-down rate41.8%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.56Points / drive2.01
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 28/41 | 293 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kyle Allen | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Reggie Bonnafon | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 11 | 12 | 82 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 6 | 81 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 5 | 10 | 57 | 1 |
| Jarius Wright | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 20/34 | 313 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 17 | 84 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Brian Hill | 9 | 62 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Qadree Ollison | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 2 | 93 | 1 |
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 5 | 76 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 5 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 4 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.20
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+5.18