2019 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

24·21

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

50

Model margin

+4.7est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapTitans
  • +0.057EPA / play+0.063
  • 45.6%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.132EPA / dropback+0.143
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.046
  • 8.7%Explosive rate11.6%
  • +1.12CPOE+3.45
  • 43.7%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
  • 2.18Points / drive1.99
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TEN
HOUQ1 15:001054Turnover0–0
TENQ1 9:28767Missed field goal0–0
HOUQ1 6:59517Punt0–0
TENQ1 5:0434Punt0–0
HOUQ1 4:0631Punt0–0
TENQ1 1:451276Turnover0–0
HOUQ2 10:46212Touchdown7–0
TENQ2 9:5934Punt7–0
HOUQ2 7:49957Touchdown14–0
TENQ2 3:14945Turnover on downs14–0
HOUQ2 1:08515Punt14–0
TENQ2 0:0100End of half14–0
TENQ3 15:001581Touchdown14–7
HOUQ3 5:34860Turnover14–7
TENQ3 0:39673Touchdown14–14
HOUQ4 13:35770Touchdown21–14
TENQ4 10:34416Punt21–14
HOUQ4 8:461185Field goal24–14
TENQ4 3:26775Touchdown24–21
HOUQ4 2:0433Punt24–21
TENQ4 0:171-8End of half24–21

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson19/2724322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde261044.01
Deshaun Watson7324.60
Duke Johnson242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins681190
Will Fuller57610
Kenny Stills33352
Duke Johnson23190
Jordan Akins2270
Darren Fells1220

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill22/3627921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry21864.10
Jonnu Smith15757.00
Dion Lewis3103.30
Ryan Tannehill3103.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown8131141
Jonnu Smith55600
Corey Davis36570
Tajae Sharpe22280
Dion Lewis11111
Anthony Firkser1470
Kalif Raymond1220
Derrick Henry0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.5%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.65