Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
50
Model margin
+4.7est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play+0.063
- 45.6%Success rate45.7%
- +0.132EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.7%Explosive rate11.6%
- +1.12CPOE+3.45
- 43.7%Third-down rate39.4%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 2.18Points / drive1.99
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 19/27 | 243 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 26 | 104 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 8 | 119 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 5 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 3 | 35 | 2 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 22/36 | 279 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 21 | 86 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 57 | 57.0 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 8 | 13 | 114 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 5 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 3 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.91
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.65