2019 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

21·31

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 40°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

KC -10

Total

46

Model margin

+3.6est.

KC perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapChiefs
  • +0.036EPA / play+0.135
  • 47.3%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback+0.247
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.094
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +3.58CPOE+1.86
  • 45.5%Third-down rate48.7%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.59
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 32–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6LAC @ KC6–22KC
2025 · W15LAC @ KC16–13CHARGERS
2025 · W1KC @ LAC21–27CHARGERS
2024 · W14LAC @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W4KC @ LAC17–10KC
2023 · W18KC @ LAC13–12KC
2023 · W7LAC @ KC17–31KC
2022 · W11KC @ LAC30–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–KC
LACQ1 15:00726Punt0–0
KCQ1 9:411652Field goal0–3
LACQ1 1:291174Touchdown7–3
KCQ2 11:441245Punt7–3
LACQ2 5:25314Punt7–3
KCQ2 3:45457Touchdown7–10
LACQ2 2:16954Turnover7–10
KCQ2 0:2816End of half7–10
KCQ3 15:0020Turnover7–10
LACQ3 14:40321Touchdown14–16
KCQ3 13:1400Touchdown14–17
LACQ3 12:581128Punt14–23
KCQ3 6:41184Touchdown14–24
LACQ3 6:261057Turnover on downs14–24
KCQ3 0:26522Punt14–24
LACQ4 12:341686Touchdown21–24
KCQ4 5:23872Touchdown21–31
LACQ4 2:3776Turnover21–31
KCQ4 0:5900End of half21–31

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers31/4628122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon14463.31
Austin Ekeler9465.10
Justin Jackson11111.00
Philip Rivers155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen910821
Melvin Gordon67760
Austin Ekeler911430
Hunter Henry56421
Mike Williams25380
Virgil Green0100
Andre Patton0300
Jason Moore0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes16/2517411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Williams1212410.32
Patrick Mahomes7213.00
Darwin Thompson4174.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill45610
Damien Williams47300
Mecole Hardman11300
Travis Kelce35240
Demarcus Robinson12241
Sammy Watkins1280
Blake Bell1210
Darwin Thompson11-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.7%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.60