Closing spread
KC -10
Total
46
Model margin
+3.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.135
- 47.3%Success rate47.0%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.247
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.094
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- +3.58CPOE+1.86
- 45.5%Third-down rate48.7%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.99Points / drive2.59
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 31/46 | 281 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 14 | 46 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 9 | 10 | 82 | 1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 6 | 7 | 76 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 9 | 11 | 43 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Patton | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 16/25 | 174 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Williams | 12 | 124 | 10.3 | 2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.60