Closing spread
NE -17.5
Total
46
Model margin
+4.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play+0.010
- 41.5%Success rate42.6%
- +0.002EPA / dropback+0.065
- -0.268EPA / rush-0.078
- 6.3%Explosive rate9.2%
- -2.66CPOE-2.06
- 35.1%Third-down rate39.1%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.62Points / drive1.85
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 28/41 | 320 | 1 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1/2 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Laird | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Isaiah Ford | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 8 | 11 | 137 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 7 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 7 | 34 | 1 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 16/29 | 221 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 6 | 48 | 8.0 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| N'Keal Harry | 3 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.71
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.45