2019 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

13·6

Bills

Buffalo

QB Matt Barkley

New Era Field · outdoors · astroturf · 43°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1.5

Total

37

Model margin

+3.4est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBills
  • -0.155EPA / play-0.023
  • 37.3%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.119EPA / dropback+0.020
  • -0.216EPA / rush-0.085
  • 6.9%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +0.20CPOE-2.62
  • 30.8%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 48.5%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.56
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BUF
NYJQ1 15:001059Missed field goal0–0
BUFQ1 8:3430Punt0–0
NYJQ1 7:03412Punt0–0
BUFQ1 5:11414Punt0–0
NYJQ1 3:1032Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 2:203-2Punt0–0
NYJQ1 1:231159Field goal3–0
BUFQ2 10:54840Punt3–0
NYJQ2 6:01418Punt3–0
BUFQ2 3:35510Turnover3–0
NYJQ2 1:50827Missed field goal3–0
BUFQ3 15:00841Turnover3–0
NYJQ3 11:4133Punt3–0
BUFQ3 9:401672Field goal3–3
NYJQ3 1:291075Touchdown10–3
BUFQ4 13:31422Punt10–3
NYJQ4 11:073-2Punt10–3
BUFQ4 9:2130Punt10–3
NYJQ4 8:2637Punt10–3
BUFQ4 6:42345Turnover10–3
NYJQ4 5:17613Field goal13–3
BUFQ4 2:05667Field goal13–6
NYJQ4 0:4700End of half13–6

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold23/3619911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell16412.60
Bilal Powell7273.90
Vyncint Smith12020.00
Sam Darnold3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder810661
Le'Veon Bell55360
Vyncint Smith34360
Daniel Brown34320
Robbie Chosen37180
Braxton Berrios12110
Trevon Wesco0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Barkley18/3523202
Josh Allen3/5500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah McKenzie23015.00
Frank Gore6264.30
T.J. Yeldon7182.60
Senorise Perry331.00
Matt Barkley2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Duke Williams6121080
Tommy Sweeney55760
T.J. Yeldon34240
Frank Gore34160
Isaiah McKenzie2570
Tyler Kroft1450
Senorise Perry1110
Robert Foster0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

41.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.56
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.08
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.38