Closing spread
NYJ -1.5
Total
37
Model margin
+3.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play-0.023
- 37.3%Success rate41.8%
- -0.119EPA / dropback+0.020
- -0.216EPA / rush-0.085
- 6.9%Explosive rate10.1%
- +0.20CPOE-2.62
- 30.8%Third-down rate35.9%
- 48.5%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 1.20Points / drive1.56
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 23/36 | 199 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 16 | 41 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 8 | 10 | 66 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 5 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Trevon Wesco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Barkley | 18/35 | 232 | 0 | 2 |
| Josh Allen | 3/5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Senorise Perry | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Barkley | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Williams | 6 | 12 | 108 | 0 |
| Tommy Sweeney | 5 | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Senorise Perry | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.56
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.08
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.38