Closing spread
DEN -5.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 17/28 | 177 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Diontae Spencer | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DaeSean Hamilton | 5 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Troy Fumagalli | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.55
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+2.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.09
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.