2019 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

35·14

Texans

Houston

QB A.J. McCarron

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

TEN -10

Total

43

Model margin

-4.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapTexans
  • +0.063EPA / play+0.057
  • 45.7%Success rate45.6%
  • +0.143EPA / dropback+0.132
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.071
  • 11.6%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +3.45CPOE+1.12
  • 39.4%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.18
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–HOU
HOUQ1 15:001575Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 7:25475Touchdown7–7
HOUQ1 5:33419Punt7–7
TENQ1 2:461690Touchdown14–7
HOUQ2 9:4238Punt14–7
TENQ2 8:36527Punt14–7
HOUQ2 5:41524Punt14–7
TENQ2 1:58937Punt14–7
HOUQ2 0:41424End of half14–7
TENQ3 15:001063Touchdown21–7
HOUQ3 10:061680Touchdown21–14
TENQ3 1:09575Touchdown28–14
HOUQ4 14:0235Punt28–14
TENQ4 12:2038Punt28–14
HOUQ4 10:173-1Punt28–14
TENQ4 7:4939Punt28–14
HOUQ4 4:46523Turnover28–14
TENQ4 3:26485Touchdown35–14
HOUQ4 2:54744Turnover on downs35–14
TENQ4 1:3400End of half35–14

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill13/2019820
Marcus Mariota1/12400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry322116.63
Ryan Tannehill5204.00
Dion Lewis177.00
Jonnu Smith177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown481241
Corey Davis45440
Rashard Davis11160
MyCole Pruitt22131
Tajae Sharpe12130
Anthony Firkser1250

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
AJ McCarron21/3622501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Taiwan Jones9404.40
AJ McCarron5397.81
Carlos Hyde4133.30
Duke Johnson4123.01
Buddy Howell351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Carter67650
Jordan Akins57540
Duke Johnson56450
Steven Mitchell25370
Taiwan Jones1190
Keke Coutee1370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -102.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.6%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.2%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.93
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.10