Closing spread
TEN -10
Total
43
Model margin
-4.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.057
- 45.7%Success rate45.6%
- +0.143EPA / dropback+0.132
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.071
- 11.6%Explosive rate8.7%
- +3.45CPOE+1.12
- 39.4%Third-down rate43.7%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.99Points / drive2.18
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 13/20 | 198 | 2 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1/1 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 32 | 211 | 6.6 | 3 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 8 | 124 | 1 |
| Corey Davis | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Rashard Davis | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ McCarron | 21/36 | 225 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan Jones | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| AJ McCarron | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Buddy Howell | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Carter | 6 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Steven Mitchell | 2 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Taiwan Jones | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Keke Coutee | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.2%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.91
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.93
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.10