2020 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

17·27

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · astroturf · 67°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

BUF -6.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+6.4est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBills
  • -0.116EPA / play+0.169
  • 40.9%Success rate50.4%
  • -0.098EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.146EPA / rush-0.081
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -2.07CPOE+6.29
  • 34.4%Third-down rate49.9%
  • 41.2%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
  • 1.24Points / drive2.78
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BUF
NYJQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:44627Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 11:3331Punt0–0
BUFQ1 9:32852Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 5:3830Punt0–7
BUFQ1 5:08744Touchdown0–14
NYJQ1 2:32519Punt0–14
BUFQ2 14:461563Touchdown0–21
NYJQ2 6:4839Turnover0–21
BUFQ2 5:481137Turnover0–21
NYJQ2 1:27870Field goal3–21
BUFQ3 15:0030Punt3–21
NYJQ3 13:40613Punt3–21
BUFQ3 10:06842Missed field goal3–21
NYJQ3 5:58372Touchdown10–21
BUFQ3 5:10737Missed field goal10–21
NYJQ3 1:335-1Turnover10–21
BUFQ4 14:27934Field goal10–24
NYJQ4 10:3832Punt10–24
BUFQ4 9:441170Field goal10–27
NYJQ4 3:151266Touchdown17–27
BUFQ4 0:5400End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold21/3521511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore6244.00
Le'Veon Bell6142.30
Josh Adams284.01
Sam Darnold166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder7131151
Chris Herndon67370
Le'Veon Bell22320
Breshad Perriman35170
Josh Adams22140
Chris Hogan1400

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen33/4631220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen14574.11
Devin Singletary9303.30
Zack Moss9111.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs89860
John Brown610701
Cole Beasley47580
Dawson Knox23260
Devin Singletary57230
Isaiah McKenzie33170
Gabe Davis22160
Zack Moss34161

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

4.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.0%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.42