Closing spread
BUF -6.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.116EPA / play+0.169
- 40.9%Success rate50.4%
- -0.098EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.081
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.7%
- -2.07CPOE+6.29
- 34.4%Third-down rate49.9%
- 41.2%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 1.24Points / drive2.78
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 21/35 | 215 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 7 | 13 | 115 | 1 |
| Chris Herndon | 6 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 33/46 | 312 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 9 | 11 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 9 | 86 | 0 |
| John Brown | 6 | 10 | 70 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 5 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.0%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.71
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.42