2020 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

31·28

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 90°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BUF -5.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.169EPA / play+0.026
  • 50.4%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback+0.115
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.124
  • 10.7%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +6.29CPOE+1.23
  • 49.9%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 68.4%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
  • 2.78Points / drive1.99
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–MIA
BUFQ1 15:00422Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:03520Punt0–0
BUFQ1 10:141197Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 4:551075Touchdown7–7
BUFQ1 0:38136Turnover7–7
MIAQ1 0:2334Punt7–7
BUFQ2 14:38584Touchdown14–7
MIAQ2 11:40618Punt14–7
BUFQ2 8:431383Field goal17–7
MIAQ2 2:303-1Punt17–7
BUFQ2 1:45418Punt17–7
MIAQ2 0:33341Field goal17–10
BUFQ2 0:0200End of half17–10
MIAQ3 15:00858Field goal17–13
BUFQ3 11:18520Punt17–13
MIAQ3 8:191270Turnover on downs17–13
BUFQ3 2:0238Punt17–13
MIAQ3 0:241044Touchdown17–20
BUFQ4 10:11885Touchdown24–20
MIAQ4 5:5541Punt24–20
BUFQ4 4:26571Touchdown31–20
MIAQ4 3:09980Touchdown31–28
BUFQ4 0:4900End of half31–28

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen24/3541540

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary10565.60
Zack Moss8374.60
Josh Allen4194.80
Gabe Davis100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs8131531
John Brown46821
Cole Beasley56700
Isaiah McKenzie22470
Dawson Knox13360
Devin Singletary23200
Gabe Davis1161
Reggie Gilliam1111

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick31/4732820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Myles Gaskin7466.60
Matt Breida7375.30
Ryan Fitzpatrick3124.00
Jordan Howard540.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Gesicki8111301
Isaiah Ford79760
DeVante Parker58531
Myles Gaskin67360
Preston Williams15260
Adam Shaheen1240
Jakeem Grant1120
Matt Breida1220
Lynn Bowden11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.63%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.93
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.80