Closing spread
BUF -5.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.169EPA / play+0.026
- 50.4%Success rate46.8%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.115
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.124
- 10.7%Explosive rate7.0%
- +6.29CPOE+1.23
- 49.9%Third-down rate38.5%
- 68.4%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 2.78Points / drive1.99
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 24/35 | 415 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 13 | 153 | 1 |
| John Brown | 4 | 6 | 82 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 5 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 31/47 | 328 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gesicki | 8 | 11 | 130 | 1 |
| Isaiah Ford | 7 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 8 | 53 | 1 |
| Myles Gaskin | 6 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Preston Williams | 1 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.93
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.80