Closing spread
HOU -6.5
Total
55
Model margin
+4.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.093
- 42.0%Success rate47.8%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.193
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.7%
- -0.40CPOE+6.51
- 40.6%Third-down rate43.5%
- 64.8%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.74Points / drive2.25
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 31/49 | 301 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 7 | 8 | 79 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 2 | 58 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Collin Johnson | 3 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 6 | 25 | 1 |
| James Robinson | 5 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 25/35 | 359 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 17 | 96 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 8 | 12 | 161 | 1 |
| Will Fuller | 4 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 2 | 57 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 6 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
47.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.09
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.79