2020 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Gardner Minshew II

14·30

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -6.5

Total

55

Model margin

+4.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTexans
  • -0.050EPA / play+0.093
  • 42.0%Success rate47.8%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.193
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -0.40CPOE+6.51
  • 40.6%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 64.8%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.74Points / drive2.25
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–HOU
JAXQ1 15:00416Punt0–0
HOUQ1 12:51438Punt0–0
JAXQ1 10:22630Punt0–0
HOUQ1 6:421673Field goal0–3
JAXQ2 14:071375Touchdown7–3
HOUQ2 6:33475Touchdown7–10
JAXQ2 4:321169Missed field goal7–10
HOUQ2 0:3410Turnover7–10
JAXQ2 0:26415Missed field goal7–10
HOUQ3 15:00845Field goal7–13
JAXQ3 11:3536Punt7–13
HOUQ3 9:13537Turnover7–13
JAXQ3 6:52615Turnover7–13
HOUQ3 3:16895Touchdown7–20
JAXQ4 14:161075Touchdown14–20
HOUQ4 10:18547Field goal14–23
JAXQ4 7:29620Turnover14–23
HOUQ4 6:14434Touchdown14–30
JAXQ4 4:391243Turnover on downs14–30
HOUQ4 1:38342End of half14–30

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew31/4930120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson13483.70
Gardner Minshew4184.50
Chris Thompson273.50
Keelan Cole122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laviska Shenault Jr.78790
Chris Conley22580
Chris Thompson33350
Collin Johnson34301
Keelan Cole26251
James Robinson57220
James O'Shaughnessy33200
Tyler Eifert37160
DJ Chark34160

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson25/3535932

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson17965.60
Deshaun Watson22512.50
Duke Johnson382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks8121611
Will Fuller48581
Darren Fells22571
Randall Cobb66470
Kenny Stills11140
Duke Johnson11110
David Johnson2470
Pharaoh Brown1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

4.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.8%

Expected total

47.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.79