2020 · Week 6 · Division

Final / OT

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

36·42

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

TEN -4

Total

52

Model margin

+2.9est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapTitans
  • +0.093EPA / play+0.189
  • 47.8%Success rate50.8%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.297
  • -0.193EPA / rush+0.070
  • 9.7%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +6.51CPOE+2.16
  • 43.5%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate76.8%
  • 2.25Points / drive2.85
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TEN
TENQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
HOUQ1 14:11624Punt0–0
TENQ1 11:201072Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 6:5736Punt0–7
TENQ1 5:261071Touchdown0–14
HOUQ1 0:121382Touchdown7–14
TENQ2 8:561185Touchdown7–21
HOUQ2 3:341177Field goal10–21
HOUQ3 15:0037Punt10–21
TENQ3 13:331065Missed field goal10–21
HOUQ3 8:47651Touchdown17–21
TENQ3 6:153-15Turnover17–21
HOUQ3 5:5734Touchdown23–21
TENQ3 4:351071Missed field goal23–21
HOUQ4 14:14722Punt23–27
TENQ4 9:37194Touchdown23–29
HOUQ4 9:23275Touchdown30–29
TENQ4 8:3710Turnover30–29
HOUQ4 8:301564Touchdown36–29
TENQ4 1:50976Touchdown36–36
HOUQ4 0:0400End of half36–36
TENOT682Touchdown36–42

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson28/3733540
Randall Cobb0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson19573.01
Deshaun Watson4266.50
Duke Johnson492.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Fuller6111231
Darren Fells67851
Brandin Cooks99681
Pharaoh Brown22280
Randall Cobb34171
David Johnson12120
Duke Johnson1220

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill30/4136641

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry222129.62
Jeremy McNichols55110.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Firkser891131
Adam Humphries66641
A.J. Brown57582
Derrick Henry25520
Kalif Raymond34320
Jonnu Smith12130
Cameron Batson11130
Jeremy McNichols23110
Geoff Swaim23100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

49.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin+2.85