Closing spread
TEN -4
Total
52
Model margin
+2.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play+0.189
- 47.8%Success rate50.8%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.297
- -0.193EPA / rush+0.070
- 9.7%Explosive rate10.3%
- +6.51CPOE+2.16
- 43.5%Third-down rate47.4%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate76.8%
- 2.25Points / drive2.85
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 28/37 | 335 | 4 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 19 | 57 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fuller | 6 | 11 | 123 | 1 |
| Darren Fells | 6 | 7 | 85 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 9 | 9 | 68 | 1 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 30/41 | 366 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 22 | 212 | 9.6 | 2 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 5 | 51 | 10.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Firkser | 8 | 9 | 113 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 6 | 6 | 64 | 1 |
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 7 | 58 | 2 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Cameron Batson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
49.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+2.85