Closing spread
KC -5.5
Total
55
Model margin
+3.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.177EPA / play+0.169
- 50.2%Success rate50.4%
- +0.288EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.081
- 11.0%Explosive rate10.7%
- +2.60CPOE+6.29
- 49.5%Third-down rate49.9%
- 70.8%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 2.85Points / drive2.78
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. BUF are 14-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 21/26 | 225 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 26 | 161 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Darwin Thompson | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demarcus Robinson | 5 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 7 | 65 | 2 |
| Byron Pringle | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Nick Keizer | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 14/27 | 122 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 8 | 46 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 7 | 45 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| John Brown | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+3.38