2020 · Week 6

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

26·17

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · astroturf · 51°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

KC -5.5

Total

55

Model margin

+3.4est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBills
  • +0.177EPA / play+0.169
  • 50.2%Success rate50.4%
  • +0.288EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.081
  • 11.0%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +2.60CPOE+6.29
  • 49.5%Third-down rate49.9%
  • 70.8%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
  • 2.85Points / drive2.78
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 12–11 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. BUF are 14-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9KC @ BUF21–28BUF
2024 · playoffsBUF @ KC29–32KC
2024 · W11KC @ BUF21–30BUF
2023 · playoffsKC @ BUF27–24KC
2023 · W14BUF @ KC20–17BUF
2022 · W6BUF @ KC24–20BUF
2021 · playoffsBUF @ KC36–42KC
2021 · W5BUF @ KC38–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
KCQ1 14:23833Punt0–0
BUFQ1 10:091038Field goal0–3
KCQ1 5:42575Touchdown7–3
BUFQ1 3:051451Touchdown7–10
KCQ2 11:221286Touchdown13–10
BUFQ2 4:56911Punt13–10
KCQ2 1:07538Turnover13–10
BUFQ2 0:06115Missed field goal13–10
KCQ3 15:00829Punt13–10
BUFQ3 10:29417Punt13–10
KCQ3 9:051387Touchdown20–10
BUFQ3 1:1839Punt20–10
KCQ4 14:27945Field goal23–10
BUFQ4 9:07762Touchdown23–17
KCQ4 6:341175Field goal26–17
BUFQ4 1:5623Turnover26–17
KCQ4 1:1100End of half26–17

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes21/2622520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire261616.20
Patrick Mahomes10363.60
Darrel Williams6264.31
Darwin Thompson3175.70
Tyreek Hill155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demarcus Robinson56690
Travis Kelce57652
Byron Pringle22460
Tyreek Hill33200
Darrel Williams11150
Clyde Edwards-Helaire4480
Nick Keizer1120
Ricky Seals-Jones0100
Mecole Hardman0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen14/2712221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen8425.30
Devin Singletary10323.20
Zack Moss5102.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs68461
Cole Beasley47451
Devin Singletary12130
Tyler Kroft1270
Gabe Davis1170
Isaiah McKenzie1140
John Brown0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.66%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin+3.38