Closing spread
BUF -9.5
Total
47
Model margin
-2.9est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.169EPA / play-0.116
- 50.4%Success rate40.9%
- +0.298EPA / dropback-0.098
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.146
- 10.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- +6.29CPOE-2.07
- 49.9%Third-down rate34.4%
- 68.4%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
- 2.78Points / drive1.24
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 30/43 | 307 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 11 | 61 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Beasley | 11 | 12 | 112 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 4 | 4 | 64 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 11 | 48 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 12/23 | 120 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 11 | 60 | 5.5 | 0 |
| La'Mical Perine | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Mims | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| La'Mical Perine | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Trevon Wesco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.2%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.71
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-2.93