2020 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

18·10

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 52°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BUF -9.5

Total

47

Model margin

-2.9est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJets
  • +0.169EPA / play-0.116
  • 50.4%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback-0.098
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.146
  • 10.7%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +6.29CPOE-2.07
  • 49.9%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 68.4%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
  • 2.78Points / drive1.24
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:001162Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 8:46648Missed field goal0–3
NYJQ1 6:111251Turnover on downs0–3
BUFQ2 14:111056Turnover0–3
NYJQ2 11:00952Touchdown0–10
BUFQ2 7:22942Field goal3–10
NYJQ2 2:42622Turnover3–10
BUFQ2 0:40543Field goal6–10
BUFQ3 15:00824Field goal9–10
NYJQ3 10:35412Punt9–10
BUFQ3 9:001478Field goal12–10
NYJQ3 1:3730Punt12–10
BUFQ4 15:00650Missed field goal12–10
NYJQ4 12:194-1Punt12–10
BUFQ4 10:29746Field goal15–10
NYJQ4 6:0133Punt15–10
BUFQ4 5:18737Field goal18–10
NYJQ4 1:565-10Turnover18–10
BUFQ4 1:0800End of half18–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen30/4330700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen11615.50
Zack Moss7476.70
Devin Singletary8293.60
Isaiah McKenzie1-11-11.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Beasley11121120
Tyler Kroft44640
Stefon Diggs611480
Zack Moss33250
Devin Singletary25180
Reggie Gilliam11150
Isaiah McKenzie22140
Gabe Davis13110

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold12/2312002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore11605.50
La'Mical Perine11403.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Denzel Mims47420
Braxton Berrios47350
Breshad Perriman22270
La'Mical Perine23160
Trevon Wesco0100
Jeff Smith0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.52.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.2%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-2.93