Closing spread
KC -7
Total
46
Model margin
-0.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.177EPA / play-0.071
- 50.2%Success rate40.3%
- +0.288EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.103
- 11.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- +2.60CPOE-5.11
- 49.5%Third-down rate39.5%
- 70.8%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.85Points / drive1.59
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 15/23 | 200 | 1 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 2/2 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| DeAndre Washington | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 2 | 57 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 10 | 55 | 1 |
| Nick Keizer | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Marcus Kemp | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| DeAndre Washington | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 24/40 | 254 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 9 | 79 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Royce Freeman | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 7 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Tyrie Cleveland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
4.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.27