Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
55.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play+0.051
- 48.8%Success rate46.0%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.087
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.009
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- +6.78CPOE+2.07
- 39.6%Third-down rate40.2%
- 72.6%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
- 2.52Points / drive2.19
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 33/50 | 388 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 84 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 15 | 68 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Chris Carson | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 15 | 20 | 200 | 3 |
| David Moore | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 34/48 | 360 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 5 | 58 | 11.6 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 10 | 12 | 103 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 7 | 7 | 87 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 2 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 5 | 8 | 37 | 2 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
40.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+0.08