2020 · Week 7 · Division

Final / OT

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

34·37

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

SEA -3.5

Total

55.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCardinals
  • +0.105EPA / play+0.051
  • 48.8%Success rate46.0%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.087
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.009
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +6.78CPOE+2.07
  • 39.6%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 72.6%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
  • 2.52Points / drive2.19
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ARI
SEAQ1 15:00675Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 11:593-2Punt7–0
SEAQ1 10:26848Field goal10–0
ARIQ1 6:351069Touchdown10–7
SEAQ1 2:39944Field goal13–7
ARIQ2 12:50425Turnover13–7
SEAQ2 11:17528Turnover13–7
ARIQ2 8:5445Turnover on downs13–7
SEAQ2 6:43697Touchdown20–7
ARIQ2 4:04675Touchdown20–14
SEAQ2 1:14485Touchdown27–14
ARIQ2 0:43644Field goal27–17
ARIQ3 15:00528Punt27–17
SEAQ3 11:50634Punt27–17
ARIQ3 8:301488Touchdown27–24
SEAQ3 2:591060Turnover27–24
ARIQ4 12:1810Turnover27–24
SEAQ4 12:101240Touchdown34–24
ARIQ4 6:441465Touchdown34–31
SEAQ4 2:28520Punt34–31
ARIQ4 0:52454Field goal34–34
SEAOT614Punt34–34
ARIOT549Missed field goal34–34
SEAOT727Turnover34–34
ARIOT419Field goal34–37

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson33/5038833

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson68414.00
Carlos Hyde15684.51
Chris Carson5346.80
Travis Homer3103.30
David Moore144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett15202003
David Moore33540
Will Dissly24380
DK Metcalf25230
Jacob Hollister33220
Greg Olsen23180
DeeJay Dallas23180
Carlos Hyde3480
Chris Carson1270
Freddie Swain0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray34/4836031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyler Murray14674.81
Chase Edmonds55811.60
Kenyan Drake14342.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins10121031
Chase Edmonds77870
Larry Fitzgerald88620
Dan Arnold23570
Christian Kirk58372
Kenyan Drake1270
Andy Isabella1370
Darrell Daniels0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.3%

Expected total

40.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.64
  • Expected margin+0.08