Closing spread
LAC -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play-0.071
- 43.8%Success rate40.3%
- +0.154EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.141EPA / rush-0.103
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.1%
- +0.07CPOE-5.11
- 45.1%Third-down rate39.5%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.02Points / drive1.59
- 1.3%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 29/43 | 278 | 3 | 2 |
| Keenan Allen | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jackson | 17 | 89 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Troymaine Pope | 10 | 67 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 5 | 8 | 99 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 9 | 12 | 67 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Troymaine Pope | 5 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 26/41 | 248 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 6 | 83 | 13.8 | 1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DaeSean Hamilton | 4 | 5 | 82 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 4 | 10 | 73 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 7 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 6 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 3 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.41