Closing spread
BUF -4
Total
41
Model margin
+5.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.169
- 46.5%Success rate50.4%
- -0.040EPA / dropback+0.298
- +0.052EPA / rush-0.081
- 9.4%Explosive rate10.7%
- -2.06CPOE+6.29
- 41.3%Third-down rate49.9%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 1.88Points / drive2.78
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 21-31-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 15/25 | 174 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 16 | 102 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Ryan Izzo | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Isaiah Zuber | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 11/18 | 154 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 14 | 86 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 14 | 81 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Josh Allen | 10 | 23 | 2.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 9 | 92 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.1%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.29