2020 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Cam Newton

21·24

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · astroturf · 41°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

BUF -4

Total

41

Model margin

+5.3est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBills
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.169
  • 46.5%Success rate50.4%
  • -0.040EPA / dropback+0.298
  • +0.052EPA / rush-0.081
  • 9.4%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -2.06CPOE+6.29
  • 41.3%Third-down rate49.9%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.78
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BUF are 21-32-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NE @ BUF29–26NE
2025 · W15BUF @ NE35–31BUF
2025 · W5NE @ BUF23–20NE
2024 · W18BUF @ NE16–23NE
2024 · W16NE @ BUF21–24BUF
2023 · W17NE @ BUF21–27BUF
2023 · W7BUF @ NE25–29NE
2022 · W18NE @ BUF23–35BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–BUF
NEQ1 15:00728Punt0–0
BUFQ1 10:391078Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 5:29816Punt0–7
BUFQ1 1:30418Punt0–7
NEQ2 15:00749Field goal3–7
BUFQ2 10:5057Punt3–7
NEQ2 7:4336Punt3–7
BUFQ2 5:30947Turnover3–7
NEQ2 1:38634Field goal6–7
BUFQ2 0:0800End of half6–7
BUFQ3 15:00575Touchdown6–14
NEQ3 12:09832Punt6–14
BUFQ3 7:3634Punt6–14
NEQ3 5:52647Touchdown14–14
BUFQ3 3:03950Touchdown14–21
NEQ4 13:12772Touchdown21–21
BUFQ4 9:36963Field goal21–24
NEQ4 4:061265Turnover21–24
BUFQ4 0:3100End of half21–24

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton15/2517400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Harris161026.41
Cam Newton9546.01
Rex Burkhead6264.30
Gunner Olszewski166.00
James White200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers610580
Damiere Byrd34390
James White24350
Ryan Izzo23240
Isaiah Zuber11130
Rex Burkhead1150

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen11/1815401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary14866.10
Zack Moss14815.82
Josh Allen10232.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs69920
Cole Beasley22240
John Brown12210
Tyler Kroft11110
Devin Singletary1160
Gabe Davis0200
Zack Moss0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.1%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.29