2020 · Week 8 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

27·37

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 55°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SEA -1

Total

54.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.010EPA / play+0.105
  • 45.8%Success rate48.8%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.013
  • 9.4%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -1.74CPOE+6.78
  • 39.6%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 71.8%Red-zone TD rate72.6%
  • 2.03Points / drive2.52
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–SEA
SEAQ1 15:003-4Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:15525Punt0–0
SEAQ1 10:22614Punt0–0
SFQ1 7:09729Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 4:06786Touchdown0–6
SFQ2 15:001555Touchdown7–6
SEAQ2 6:59976Touchdown7–13
SFQ2 3:0464Punt7–13
SEAQ2 1:1230Punt7–13
SFQ2 0:4914End of half7–13
SFQ3 15:003-8Punt7–13
SEAQ3 13:03953Touchdown7–20
SFQ3 8:0200Touchdown7–20
SEAQ3 7:58621Touchdown7–27
SFQ3 5:5134Punt7–27
SEAQ3 3:46846Field goal7–30
SFQ4 14:071378Touchdown14–30
SEAQ4 9:36626Punt14–30
SFQ4 6:22680Touchdown20–30
SEAQ4 4:16835Touchdown20–37
SFQ4 3:33981Touchdown27–37
SEAQ4 1:5200End of half27–37

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Mullens18/2523820
Jimmy Garoppolo11/168401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
JaMycal Hasty12292.41
Tevin Coleman3206.70
Jimmy Garoppolo441.00
Jerick McKinnon3-1-0.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk810911
Kendrick Bourne810810
Jerick McKinnon44400
George Kittle24390
Trent Taylor35320
Ross Dwelley14161
JaMycal Hasty1120

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson27/3726140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeeJay Dallas18412.31
David Moore22814.00
Russell Wilson6233.80
Travis Homer144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf12151612
Tyler Lockett45330
David Moore33181
Will Dissly11170
DeeJay Dallas55171
Jacob Hollister1260
Greg Olsen0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.9%

Expected total

40.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.23
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.70