Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
54.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play+0.105
- 45.8%Success rate48.8%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.013
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- -1.74CPOE+6.78
- 39.6%Third-down rate39.6%
- 71.8%Red-zone TD rate72.6%
- 2.03Points / drive2.52
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 18/25 | 238 | 2 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 11/16 | 84 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JaMycal Hasty | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 8 | 10 | 91 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 8 | 10 | 81 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 27/37 | 261 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeeJay Dallas | 18 | 41 | 2.3 | 1 |
| David Moore | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 12 | 15 | 161 | 2 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| David Moore | 3 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 5 | 5 | 17 | 1 |
| Jacob Hollister | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
40.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.70