Closing spread
HOU -7
Total
49
Model margin
-5.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play-0.050
- 47.8%Success rate42.0%
- +0.211EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.086
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.3%
- +6.51CPOE-0.40
- 43.5%Third-down rate40.6%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate64.8%
- 2.25Points / drive1.74
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. JAX are 20-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 19/32 | 281 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 10 | 50 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 16 | 41 | 2.6 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fuller | 5 | 5 | 100 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 9 | 83 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Luton | 26/38 | 304 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 25 | 99 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jake Luton | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Chark | 7 | 12 | 146 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 7 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Collin Johnson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.0%
Expected total
47.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.09
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.58
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.96