2020 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

27·25

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Jake Luton

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

HOU -7

Total

49

Model margin

-5.0est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJaguars
  • +0.093EPA / play-0.050
  • 47.8%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.086
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +6.51CPOE-0.40
  • 43.5%Third-down rate40.6%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate64.8%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.74
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. JAX are 20-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00375Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 14:08275Touchdown7–7
JAXQ1 13:3332Punt7–7
HOUQ1 12:33545Field goal10–7
JAXQ1 9:48723Punt10–7
HOUQ1 6:1335Punt10–7
JAXQ1 5:1132Punt10–7
HOUQ1 3:281346Field goal13–7
JAXQ2 12:271275Touchdown13–13
HOUQ2 5:42418Turnover13–13
JAXQ2 3:453-7Punt13–13
HOUQ2 2:11843Touchdown20–13
JAXQ2 0:27218Field goal20–16
HOUQ3 15:00310Punt20–16
JAXQ3 13:101061Turnover20–16
HOUQ3 7:26381Touchdown27–16
JAXQ3 6:05863Field goal27–19
HOUQ3 1:11921Punt27–19
JAXQ4 10:51714Turnover on downs27–19
HOUQ4 7:5632Punt27–19
JAXQ4 6:553-3Punt27–19
HOUQ4 5:44831Punt27–19
JAXQ4 2:57780Touchdown27–25
HOUQ4 1:3000End of half27–25

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson19/3228120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deshaun Watson10505.00
Duke Johnson16412.61
David Johnson2168.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Fuller551001
Brandin Cooks39831
Duke Johnson44320
Darren Fells22260
Randall Cobb33210
Jordan Akins24190
David Johnson0100
Pharaoh Brown0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Luton26/3830411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson25994.01
Jake Luton11313.01
Chris Thompson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Chark7121461
Chris Conley78520
Tyler Eifert45480
Chris Thompson44350
James O'Shaughnessy1290
Collin Johnson1290
Keelan Cole1260
James Robinson0200
Laviska Shenault Jr.11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -73.0%3.3%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.4%3.5%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.0%

Expected total

47.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.58
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.96