2020 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Drew Lock

12·37

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -3.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapRaiders
  • -0.071EPA / play+0.066
  • 40.3%Success rate47.4%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.103EPA / rush-0.067
  • 9.1%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -5.11CPOE+2.18
  • 39.5%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate59.9%
  • 1.59Points / drive2.49
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 31–23 since 1999

DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. LV are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DEN @ LV24–17DEN
2025 · W10LV @ DEN7–10DEN
2024 · W12DEN @ LV29–19DEN
2024 · W5LV @ DEN18–34DEN
2023 · W18DEN @ LV14–27RAIDERS
2023 · W1LV @ DEN17–16RAIDERS
2022 · W11LV @ DEN22–16RAIDERS
2022 · W4DEN @ LV23–32RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–LV
DENQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
LVQ1 13:26762Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 9:44742Field goal3–7
LVQ1 7:1137Punt3–7
DENQ1 5:38925Turnover3–7
LVQ1 1:2054Punt3–7
DENQ2 14:3830Punt3–7
LVQ2 12:1733Punt3–7
DENQ2 11:22761Field goal6–7
LVQ2 8:151376Field goal6–10
DENQ2 1:441163Turnover6–10
LVQ2 0:0500End of half6–10
LVQ3 15:001152Field goal6–13
DENQ3 9:133-3Punt6–13
LVQ3 8:171383Touchdown6–20
DENQ3 0:3624Turnover6–20
LVQ4 14:4837Field goal6–23
DENQ4 13:2240Punt6–23
LVQ4 12:50410Punt6–23
DENQ4 10:1316Turnover6–29
LVQ4 10:0517Touchdown6–30
DENQ4 10:001360Touchdown12–30
LVQ4 6:10748Touchdown12–37
DENQ4 1:54750Turnover12–37
LVQ4 0:1800End of half12–37

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock23/4725714

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon11464.20
Royce Freeman2115.50
Drew Lock273.50
Phillip Lindsay420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy48680
Tim Patrick46610
KJ Hamler410500
DaeSean Hamilton46331
Noah Fant37180
Royce Freeman22150
Troy Fumagalli23120
Melvin Gordon0200
Phillip Lindsay0100

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr16/2515400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs211125.32
Devontae Booker16815.12
Derek Carr4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Waller35370
Henry Ruggs III34310
Hunter Renfrow22300
Josh Jacobs44240
Bryan Edwards11160
Nelson Agholor1480
Zay Jones1160
Devontae Booker1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.1%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.86