Closing spread
LV -3.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play+0.066
- 40.3%Success rate47.4%
- -0.051EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.067
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.3%
- -5.11CPOE+2.18
- 39.5%Third-down rate45.5%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate59.9%
- 1.59Points / drive2.49
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. LV are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 23/47 | 257 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 4 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 4 | 10 | 50 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 4 | 6 | 33 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Troy Fumagalli | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 16/25 | 154 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 21 | 112 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Devontae Booker | 16 | 81 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Derek Carr | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.86