2020 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

16·23

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -3

Total

55

Model margin

+2.9est.

LA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapRams
  • +0.105EPA / play-0.013
  • 48.8%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.032
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.081
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +6.78CPOE+0.37
  • 39.6%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 72.6%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 2.52Points / drive1.76
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 28–24 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. LA are 28-24 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ SEA27–31SEA
2025 · W16LA @ SEA37–38SEA
2025 · W11SEA @ LA19–21RAMS
2024 · W18SEA @ LA30–25SEA
2024 · W9LA @ SEA26–20RAMS
2023 · W11SEA @ LA16–17RAMS
2023 · W1LA @ SEA30–13RAMS
2022 · W18LA @ SEA16–19SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–LA
LAQ1 15:00970Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 9:37778Touchdown7–3
LAQ1 6:00777Touchdown7–10
SEAQ1 2:241034Punt7–10
LAQ2 13:161398Touchdown7–17
SEAQ2 6:19549Field goal10–17
LAQ2 3:4529Turnover10–17
SEAQ2 2:5125Turnover10–17
LAQ2 2:03621Punt10–17
SEAQ2 1:11948Field goal13–17
SEAQ3 15:0039Punt13–17
LAQ3 13:071595Touchdown13–23
SEAQ3 6:223-15Punt13–23
LAQ3 4:3268Punt13–23
SEAQ3 1:30728Turnover13–23
LAQ4 13:3535Punt13–23
SEAQ4 12:12852Turnover13–23
LAQ4 7:4878Punt13–23
SEAQ4 3:291345Field goal16–23
LAQ4 0:2500End of half16–23

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson22/3724802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson8607.50
Alex Collins11433.91
DeeJay Dallas284.00
David Moore122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett59660
Freddie Swain34370
Greg Olsen24330
DK Metcalf24280
DeeJay Dallas23230
Travis Homer33190
David Moore23160
Will Dissly12160
Jacob Hollister1160
Alex Collins1240

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff27/3730200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers10383.80
Malcolm Brown6335.52
Darrell Henderson7284.01
Jared Goff540.80
Robert Woods133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Reynolds810940
Tyler Higbee36600
Cooper Kupp57500
Robert Woods56330
Gerald Everett23270
Malcolm Brown22180
Van Jefferson11150
Darrell Henderson1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.9%

Expected total

38.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.93