Closing spread
LA -3
Total
55
Model margin
+2.9est.
LA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play-0.013
- 48.8%Success rate44.6%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.081
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.2%
- +6.78CPOE+0.37
- 39.6%Third-down rate44.2%
- 72.6%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 2.52Points / drive1.76
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. LA are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 22/37 | 248 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 60 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 1 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| David Moore | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 27/37 | 302 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Darrell Henderson | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reynolds | 8 | 10 | 94 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
38.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.93