Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
56.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play+0.105
- 46.0%Success rate48.8%
- +0.087EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.013
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.6%
- +2.07CPOE+6.78
- 40.2%Third-down rate39.6%
- 71.9%Red-zone TD rate72.6%
- 2.19Points / drive2.52
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 29/42 | 269 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 10 | 62 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 4 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 23/28 | 197 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 14 | 79 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Bo Scarbrough | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 9 | 9 | 67 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| David Moore | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
40.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.69