2020 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

21·28

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

56.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.051EPA / play+0.105
  • 46.0%Success rate48.8%
  • +0.087EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.013
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +2.07CPOE+6.78
  • 40.2%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 71.9%Red-zone TD rate72.6%
  • 2.19Points / drive2.52
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SEA
SEAQ1 15:001275Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 8:4533Punt0–7
SEAQ1 8:063-1Punt0–7
ARIQ1 5:5734Punt0–7
SEAQ1 3:4546Punt0–7
ARIQ1 1:43850Touchdown7–7
SEAQ2 13:511075Touchdown7–13
ARIQ2 8:27943Punt7–13
SEAQ2 3:4439Punt7–13
ARIQ2 1:5437Punt7–13
SEAQ2 1:17741Field goal7–16
ARIQ3 15:001356Touchdown14–16
SEAQ3 10:07967Touchdown14–23
ARIQ3 5:2015105Touchdown21–23
SEAQ4 13:19628Punt21–23
ARIQ4 9:2320Safety21–25
SEAQ4 9:121148Field goal21–28
ARIQ4 2:191146Turnover on downs21–28
SEAQ4 0:3400End of half21–28

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray29/4226920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake11292.61
Kyler Murray5153.00
Chase Edmonds2136.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald810620
DeAndre Hopkins58510
Christian Kirk46500
Chase Edmonds44361
Kenyan Drake45310
Maxx Williams22290
Andy Isabella1260
Dan Arnold1241

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson23/2819720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde14795.61
Russell Wilson10424.20
Bo Scarbrough6315.20
DeeJay Dallas11313.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett99671
DK Metcalf35461
Greg Olsen22200
DeeJay Dallas22190
Carlos Hyde23160
Jacob Hollister23140
Will Dissly11100
David Moore2250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

40.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.69