Closing spread
NE -1
Total
38.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play+0.128
- 41.9%Success rate44.3%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.276
- -0.154EPA / rush-0.077
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.6%
- -3.29CPOE+2.98
- 36.9%Third-down rate47.3%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.45Points / drive2.47
- 1.9%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–4 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. NE are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 24/41 | 196 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 21 | 80 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 8 | 10 | 52 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 3 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Jaelen Strong | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 11/19 | 103 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 24 | 105 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 8 | 48 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Julian Edelman | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Malcolm Mitchell | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| James White | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.5%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.63
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-6.32
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.95