2016 · Week 3

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Brock Osweiler

0·27

Patriots

New England

QB Jacoby Brissett

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 68°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NE -1

Total

38.5

Model margin

-0.9est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapPatriots
  • -0.079EPA / play+0.128
  • 41.9%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback+0.276
  • -0.154EPA / rush-0.077
  • 6.9%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -3.29CPOE+2.98
  • 36.9%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.45Points / drive2.47
  • 1.9%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–4 since 1999

Meetings average 51.1 points. NE are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–28NE
2024 · W6HOU @ NE41–21HOU
2021 · W5NE @ HOU25–22NE
2020 · W11NE @ HOU20–27HOU
2019 · W13NE @ HOU22–28HOU
2018 · W1HOU @ NE20–27NE
2017 · W3HOU @ NE33–36NE
2016 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–34NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–NE
HOUQ1 15:00612Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:1636Punt0–0
HOUQ1 10:56736Punt0–0
NEQ1 6:591062Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 2:0700Touchdown0–3
NEQ1 2:01127Touchdown0–10
HOUQ1 1:54825Turnover0–10
NEQ2 13:403-3Punt0–10
HOUQ2 11:42728Punt0–10
NEQ2 8:15625Punt0–10
HOUQ2 4:53740Punt0–10
NEQ2 1:17320End of half0–10
NEQ3 15:001271Field goal0–13
HOUQ3 8:1900Touchdown0–13
NEQ3 8:12814Touchdown0–20
HOUQ3 5:41416Punt0–20
NEQ3 4:5137Punt0–20
HOUQ3 3:27944Turnover on downs0–20
NEQ4 14:1231Punt0–20
HOUQ4 13:2731Punt0–20
NEQ4 11:40247Touchdown0–27
HOUQ4 11:00730Turnover on downs0–27
NEQ4 8:1932Punt0–27
HOUQ4 6:411140Turnover on downs0–27
NEQ4 3:1135Punt0–27
HOUQ4 1:08212End of half0–27

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler24/4119601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller21803.80
Brock Osweiler11313.00
Alfred Blue2126.00
Jonathan Grimes341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins48560
Ryan Griffin810520
Will Fuller37310
Lamar Miller45270
Jonathan Grimes44150
Jaelen Strong14150
C.J. Fiedorowicz0100
Stephen Anderson0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett11/1910300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount241054.42
Jacoby Brissett8486.01
Julian Edelman3144.70
James White3124.00
Martellus Bennett166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman46380
Malcolm Mitchell12270
Danny Amendola22230
Martellus Bennett23100
Chris Hogan1330
James White1220
Rob Gronkowski0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.5%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-6.32
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.95