2020 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Drew Lock

16·22

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 41°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

KC -13

Total

51

Model margin

+3.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

1.7%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChiefs
  • -0.071EPA / play+0.177
  • 40.3%Success rate50.2%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback+0.288
  • -0.103EPA / rush-0.056
  • 9.1%Explosive rate11.0%
  • -5.11CPOE+2.60
  • 39.5%Third-down rate49.5%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
  • 1.59Points / drive2.85
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–25 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. KC are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8KC @ DEN24–28DEN
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–KC
DENQ1 15:00541Turnover0–0
KCQ1 12:27526Punt0–0
DENQ1 9:481142Field goal3–0
KCQ1 3:58658Field goal3–3
DENQ1 0:20419Punt3–3
KCQ2 13:29839Punt3–3
DENQ2 10:37894Touchdown10–3
KCQ2 6:26654Field goal10–6
DENQ2 2:42826Missed field goal10–6
KCQ2 0:28448Field goal10–9
KCQ3 15:00962Field goal10–12
DENQ3 10:321268Touchdown16–12
KCQ3 3:50775Touchdown16–19
DENQ3 1:06514Punt16–19
KCQ4 13:18926Punt16–19
DENQ4 9:49821Punt16–19
KCQ4 6:07960Field goal16–22
DENQ4 1:0445Turnover16–22
KCQ4 0:2400End of half16–22

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock15/2815122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon151318.70
Phillip Lindsay14261.90
KJ Hamler2136.50
Drew Lock294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Fant47570
Tim Patrick44442
KJ Hamler25160
Melvin Gordon12110
Tyrie Cleveland11110
Nick Vannett2270
Jerry Jeudy1450
Phillip Lindsay0100
Troy Fumagalli0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes25/4031810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell11403.60
Darrel Williams6386.30
Tyreek Hill13030.00
Patrick Mahomes4266.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce8121361
Tyreek Hill611580
Demarcus Robinson22390
Sammy Watkins46350
Le'Veon Bell23150
Nick Keizer11150
Mecole Hardman13150
Darrel Williams1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.71%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.76