Closing spread
KC -13
Total
51
Model margin
+3.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play+0.177
- 40.3%Success rate50.2%
- -0.051EPA / dropback+0.288
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.056
- 9.1%Explosive rate11.0%
- -5.11CPOE+2.60
- 39.5%Third-down rate49.5%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
- 1.59Points / drive2.85
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 15/28 | 151 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 15 | 131 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 14 | 26 | 1.9 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Fant | 4 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 4 | 4 | 44 | 2 |
| KJ Hamler | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyrie Cleveland | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Fumagalli | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 25/40 | 318 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 30 | 30.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 12 | 136 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 11 | 58 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Nick Keizer | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.76