2020 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Philip Rivers

26·20

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

IND -3.5

Total

50

Model margin

-0.2est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTexans
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.093
  • 46.8%Success rate47.8%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.193
  • 11.3%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -0.03CPOE+6.51
  • 39.7%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 2.35Points / drive2.25
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 19-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:20672Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 9:52475Touchdown7–7
INDQ1 7:513-4Punt7–7
HOUQ1 6:21621Field goal7–10
INDQ1 4:33957Touchdown14–10
HOUQ1 0:41640Missed field goal14–10
INDQ2 12:32657Touchdown21–10
HOUQ2 9:17970Touchdown21–17
INDQ2 4:39955Field goal24–17
HOUQ2 1:12758Field goal24–20
INDQ2 0:0500End of half24–20
INDQ3 15:00738Punt24–20
HOUQ3 10:08414Punt24–20
INDQ3 8:1350Punt24–20
HOUQ3 5:53830Turnover24–20
INDQ3 0:5432Punt24–20
HOUQ4 14:15615Punt24–20
INDQ4 11:071063Turnover on downs24–20
HOUQ4 6:453-5Safety26–20
INDQ4 6:02834Punt26–20
HOUQ4 2:43878Turnover26–20
INDQ4 1:2300End of half26–20

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers27/3528520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor13917.00
Jordan Wilkins5122.40
Nyheim Hines6101.71
Jacoby Brissett210.50
Philip Rivers2-2-1.00
De'Michael Harris1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton8111101
Michael Pittman55460
Jonathan Taylor33441
Mo Alie-Cox35230
Nyheim Hines33220
Jack Doyle11120
Trey Burton13110
Zach Pascal11110
Jordan Wilkins2260
Ashton Dulin0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson26/3834101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson10444.41
Deshaun Watson7385.41
Duke Johnson284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keke Coutee891410
Chad Hansen571010
Brandin Cooks58650
Duke Johnson66240
Jordan Akins23100
Darren Fells0100
David Johnson0200
Kahale Warring0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.6%

Expected total

48.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-0.18