Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
50
Model margin
-0.2est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.093
- 46.8%Success rate47.8%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.193
- 11.3%Explosive rate9.7%
- -0.03CPOE+6.51
- 39.7%Third-down rate43.5%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 2.35Points / drive2.25
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. HOU are 19-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 27/35 | 285 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 13 | 91 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| De'Michael Harris | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 8 | 11 | 110 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 3 | 44 | 1 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 26/38 | 341 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keke Coutee | 8 | 9 | 141 | 0 |
| Chad Hansen | 5 | 7 | 101 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kahale Warring | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
48.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.12
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-0.18