Closing spread
IND -7.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play+0.083
- 47.8%Success rate46.8%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.048
- 9.7%Explosive rate11.3%
- +6.51CPOE-0.03
- 43.5%Third-down rate39.7%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 2.25Points / drive2.35
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 33/41 | 373 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Buddy Howell | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Scottie Phillips | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 11 | 11 | 106 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Chad Hansen | 2 | 3 | 55 | 1 |
| Keke Coutee | 5 | 7 | 53 | 1 |
| Jordan Akins | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Kahale Warring | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Scottie Phillips | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 22/28 | 228 | 2 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 16 | 83 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 5 | 43 | 8.6 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Pascal | 5 | 6 | 79 | 2 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 4 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
48.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.83