Closing spread
BUF -7
Total
47
Model margin
-2.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Bills
- OutReggie GilliamTEKnee· DNP
- QuestionableJaquan JohnsonSAnkle· Full
- QuestionableTy NsekheTGroin· Limited
- LimitedJake FrommQBNot Injury Related
Patriots
- OutJordan ThomasTENot Injury Related· DNP
- QuestionableAdam ButlerDTShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableAnfernee JenningsLBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableByron CowartDTBack· Limited
- QuestionableDamien HarrisRBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableDavid AndrewsCCalf· Limited
- QuestionableDonte MoncriefWRThigh· Limited
- QuestionableJ.C. JacksonCBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJ.J. TaylorRBQuadricep· Limited
- QuestionableJa'Whaun BentleyLBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableJermaine EluemunorTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJoe CardonaLSAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJohn SimonDEHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableJonathan JonesCBNeck· Limited
- QuestionableJustin HerronTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableLawrence GuyDTShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableMatt SlaterWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableNick FolkKBack· Limited
- QuestionableShaquille MasonGCalf· Limited
- QuestionableShilique CalhounLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableTashawn BowerDEAnkle· Limited
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.169EPA / play+0.004
- 50.4%Success rate46.5%
- +0.298EPA / dropback-0.040
- -0.081EPA / rush+0.052
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- +6.29CPOE-2.06
- 49.9%Third-down rate41.3%
- 68.4%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 2.78Points / drive1.88
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NE are 32-21-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 38 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 12:44 | 9 | 49 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| NE | Q1 6:43 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 3–3 |
| BUF | Q1 5:18 | 13 | 65 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| NE | Q2 14:50 | 10 | 85 | Touchdown | 10–9 |
| BUF | Q2 10:39 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–9 |
| NE | Q2 5:32 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–9 |
| BUF | Q2 4:42 | 3 | 67 | Touchdown | 24–9 |
| NE | Q2 3:55 | 9 | 28 | Punt | 24–9 |
| BUF | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–9 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 31–9 |
| NE | Q3 11:28 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 31–9 |
| BUF | Q3 9:29 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 31–9 |
| NE | Q3 8:21 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 31–9 |
| BUF | Q3 5:41 | 11 | 85 | Touchdown | 38–9 |
| NE | Q4 13:16 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 38–9 |
| BUF | Q4 11:56 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 38–9 |
| NE | Q4 7:32 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 38–9 |
| BUF | Q4 5:44 | 5 | 26 | End of half | 38–9 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 27/36 | 320 | 4 | 0 |
| Matt Barkley | 2/3 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matt Barkley | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 9 | 11 | 145 | 3 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 2 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Taiwan Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Stidham | 4/11 | 44 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 5/10 | 34 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 10 | 69 | 6.9 | 0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 1 |
| James White | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Devin Asiasi | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.8%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.96