Closing spread
BUF -7
Total
47
Model margin
-2.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.169EPA / play+0.004
- 50.4%Success rate46.5%
- +0.298EPA / dropback-0.040
- -0.081EPA / rush+0.052
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- +6.29CPOE-2.06
- 49.9%Third-down rate41.3%
- 68.4%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 2.78Points / drive1.88
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 27/36 | 320 | 4 | 0 |
| Matt Barkley | 2/3 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matt Barkley | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 9 | 11 | 145 | 3 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 2 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Taiwan Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Stidham | 4/11 | 44 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 5/10 | 34 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 10 | 69 | 6.9 | 0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 1 |
| James White | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Devin Asiasi | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.8%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.96