Closing spread
LAC -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play+0.043
- 40.3%Success rate43.8%
- -0.051EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.141
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.9%
- -5.11CPOE+0.07
- 39.5%Third-down rate45.1%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.59Points / drive2.02
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. LAC are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 24/47 | 264 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 16 | 79 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Levante Bellamy | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Diontae Spencer | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DaeSean Hamilton | 5 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 6 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 15 | 61 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Diontae Spencer | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Levante Bellamy | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Troy Fumagalli | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 21/33 | 253 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 4 | 10 | 54 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Tyron Johnson | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Kalen Ballage | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin+3.98