2020 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Drew Lock

16·19

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChargers
  • -0.071EPA / play+0.043
  • 40.3%Success rate43.8%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback+0.154
  • -0.103EPA / rush-0.141
  • 9.1%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -5.11CPOE+0.07
  • 39.5%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.59Points / drive2.02
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. LAC are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–LAC
LACQ1 15:00420Field goal0–3
DENQ1 12:531471Turnover0–3
LACQ1 5:0869Punt0–3
DENQ1 2:44931Missed field goal0–3
LACQ2 13:21973Touchdown0–10
DENQ2 8:23417Punt0–10
LACQ2 6:26955Field goal0–13
DENQ2 2:38522Punt0–13
LACQ2 1:41412End of half0–13
DENQ3 15:00839Punt0–13
LACQ3 11:2137Punt0–13
DENQ3 8:49741Field goal3–13
LACQ3 5:071073Field goal3–16
DENQ4 14:50848Field goal6–16
LACQ4 11:1839Punt6–16
DENQ4 10:211172Touchdown13–16
LACQ4 6:3132Punt13–16
DENQ4 5:25530Field goal16–16
LACQ4 2:42656Field goal16–19
DENQ4 0:41525Turnover16–19

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock24/4726402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon16794.90
Royce Freeman2168.00
Drew Lock5153.01
Levante Bellamy3113.70
Diontae Spencer199.00
KJ Hamler133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DaeSean Hamilton59770
Noah Fant69650
Jerry Jeudy615610
Tim Patrick34390
Diontae Spencer12100
Royce Freeman2270
Levante Bellamy1150
Troy Fumagalli0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert21/3325310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler10454.50
Justin Herbert4266.50
Kalen Ballage4143.50
Justin Jackson242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams410540
Stephen Anderson46480
Donald Parham23470
Jalen Guyton35430
Tyron Johnson33260
Austin Ekeler33231
Kalen Ballage23120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.7%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.16
  • Expected margin+3.98