2020 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

9·20

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

SEA -1.5

Total

48

Model margin

+1.0est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.013EPA / play+0.105
  • 44.6%Success rate48.8%
  • +0.032EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.013
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +0.37CPOE+6.78
  • 44.2%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate72.6%
  • 1.76Points / drive2.52
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 28–24 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ SEA27–31SEA
2025 · W16LA @ SEA37–38SEA
2025 · W11SEA @ LA19–21RAMS
2024 · W18SEA @ LA30–25SEA
2024 · W9LA @ SEA26–20RAMS
2023 · W11SEA @ LA16–17RAMS
2023 · W1LA @ SEA30–13RAMS
2022 · W18LA @ SEA16–19SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–SEA
LAQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:3635Punt0–0
LAQ1 12:141367Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 6:17512Punt3–0
LAQ1 3:0339Punt3–0
SEAQ1 0:44939Field goal3–3
LAQ2 12:43937Field goal6–3
SEAQ2 9:3335Punt6–3
LAQ2 8:371047Turnover6–3
SEAQ2 3:31834Field goal6–6
LAQ2 1:0439Punt6–6
SEAQ2 0:42521End of half6–6
SEAQ3 15:00770Touchdown6–13
LAQ3 10:321269Turnover on downs6–13
SEAQ3 3:1532Punt6–13
LAQ3 2:05929Field goal9–13
SEAQ4 12:49720Punt9–13
LAQ4 9:19636Punt9–13
SEAQ4 7:20980Touchdown9–20
LAQ4 2:51722Turnover on downs9–20
SEAQ4 1:5125End of half9–20

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff24/4323401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrell Henderson12625.20
Malcolm Brown7273.90
Jared Goff7233.30
Josh Reynolds155.00
Robert Woods210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp89660
Josh Reynolds610650
Robert Woods49480
Tyler Higbee36340
Gerald Everett23130
Malcolm Brown1380
Van Jefferson0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson20/3222510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson16694.30
Russell Wilson393.01
Rashaad Penny393.00
Carlos Hyde284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf68590
David Moore11450
Tyler Lockett35440
Carlos Hyde11180
Jacob Hollister26171
Will Dissly33170
Greg Olsen12150
Chris Carson33100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.9%

Expected total

38.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.04