Closing spread
LV -2.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play-0.071
- 47.4%Success rate40.3%
- +0.155EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.103
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.1%
- +2.18CPOE-5.11
- 45.5%Third-down rate39.5%
- 59.9%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.49Points / drive1.59
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 24/38 | 371 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 15 | 89 | 5.9 | 2 |
| Devontae Booker | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 9 | 10 | 117 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 2 | 2 | 51 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 3 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 25/41 | 339 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 26 | 93 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Royce Freeman | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Diontae Spencer | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Levante Bellamy | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 5 | 7 | 140 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 2 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Tyrie Cleveland | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Troy Fumagalli | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Diontae Spencer | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.47