2020 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

32·31

Broncos

Denver

QB Drew Lock

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

LV -2.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.066EPA / play-0.071
  • 47.4%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback-0.051
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.103
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +2.18CPOE-5.11
  • 45.5%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 59.9%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 2.49Points / drive1.59
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 31–23 since 1999

DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DEN @ LV24–17DEN
2025 · W10LV @ DEN7–10DEN
2024 · W12DEN @ LV29–19DEN
2024 · W5LV @ DEN18–34DEN
2023 · W18DEN @ LV14–27RAIDERS
2023 · W1LV @ DEN17–16RAIDERS
2022 · W11LV @ DEN22–16RAIDERS
2022 · W4DEN @ LV23–32RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–DEN
LVQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:331063Field goal0–3
LVQ1 9:05975Field goal3–3
DENQ1 4:341073Touchdown3–10
LVQ1 0:17210Turnover3–10
DENQ2 14:5432Missed field goal3–10
LVQ2 13:59649Touchdown10–10
DENQ2 11:151032Turnover on downs10–10
LVQ2 6:19530Punt10–10
DENQ2 4:29617Punt10–10
LVQ2 1:39661Touchdown17–10
DENQ2 0:26519Missed field goal17–10
DENQ3 15:00930Field goal17–13
LVQ3 11:213-4Punt17–13
DENQ3 9:4639Punt17–13
LVQ3 8:01425Turnover17–13
DENQ3 5:59530Field goal17–16
LVQ3 3:07214Turnover17–16
DENQ3 2:19534Touchdown17–24
LVQ4 14:54316Turnover17–24
DENQ4 14:073-8Punt17–24
LVQ4 11:39990Touchdown24–24
DENQ4 7:27392Touchdown24–31
LVQ4 6:29819Punt24–31
DENQ4 2:46628Punt24–31
LVQ4 1:47777Touchdown32–31
DENQ4 0:24225Missed field goal32–31
LVQ4 0:0200End of half32–31

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr24/3837122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs15895.92
Devontae Booker5163.20
Derek Carr210.50
Henry Ruggs III100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Waller9101171
Nelson Agholor14570
Bryan Edwards22511
Theo Riddick45400
Henry Ruggs III33380
Zay Jones12370
Hunter Renfrow37240
Foster Moreau1170
Josh Jacobs0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock25/4133920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon26933.61
Royce Freeman22110.50
Drew Lock273.50
Diontae Spencer111.00
Levante Bellamy100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy571401
Noah Fant46480
Tim Patrick24460
Tyrie Cleveland45450
DaeSean Hamilton26180
Melvin Gordon46170
Troy Fumagalli23151
Diontae Spencer1290
Royce Freeman1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.47