Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.169
- 46.8%Success rate50.4%
- +0.115EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.081
- 7.0%Explosive rate10.7%
- +1.23CPOE+6.29
- 38.5%Third-down rate49.9%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 1.99Points / drive2.78
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 35/58 | 361 | 1 | 3 |
| Lynn Bowden | 1/1 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salvon Ahmed | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Lynn Bowden | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 7 | 14 | 116 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 4 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 5 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 8 | 12 | 44 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Malcolm Perry | 1 | 1 | 25 | 1 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 18/25 | 224 | 3 | 1 |
| Matt Barkley | 6/13 | 164 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Williams | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Barkley | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 5 | 107 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| John Brown | 4 | 4 | 72 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 6 | 9 | 65 | 2 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Antonio Williams | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
6.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.83
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+3.38