2020 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

26·56

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · astroturf · 35°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

MIA -3.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBills
  • +0.026EPA / play+0.169
  • 46.8%Success rate50.4%
  • +0.115EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.081
  • 7.0%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +1.23CPOE+6.29
  • 38.5%Third-down rate49.9%
  • 59.1%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.78
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BUF
BUFQ1 15:00712Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 10:42510Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 8:07519Punt3–0
MIAQ1 5:50314Punt3–0
BUFQ1 4:1236Punt3–0
MIAQ1 2:4037Punt3–0
BUFQ1 0:28750Touchdown3–7
MIAQ2 12:09529Punt3–7
BUFQ2 9:43873Touchdown3–14
MIAQ2 6:5634Opp touchdown3–21
MIAQ2 5:22953Field goal6–21
BUFQ2 1:44475Touchdown6–28
MIAQ2 1:0035Punt6–28
BUFQ2 0:3000End of half6–28
MIAQ3 15:001072Touchdown13–28
BUFQ3 11:08730Punt13–34
MIAQ3 8:2810Opp touchdown13–35
MIAQ3 8:201027Turnover on downs13–35
BUFQ3 5:16520Turnover13–35
MIAQ3 3:55861Turnover13–35
BUFQ3 1:29579Touchdown13–42
MIAQ4 13:4410Turnover13–42
BUFQ4 13:32325Touchdown13–49
MIAQ4 11:55975Touchdown19–49
BUFQ4 8:4032Punt19–49
MIAQ4 8:04422Turnover19–55
BUFQ4 6:27156Touchdown19–56
MIAQ4 6:18875Touchdown26–56
BUFQ4 2:47212End of half26–56

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa35/5836113
Lynn Bowden1/13200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Salvon Ahmed6294.81
Tua Tagovailoa6284.70
Myles Gaskin7202.91
Lynn Bowden1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker7141160
Myles Gaskin45570
Mike Gesicki510470
Lynn Bowden812440
Isaiah Ford37370
Malcolm Perry11251
Durham Smythe33230
Adam Shaheen13220
Salvon Ahmed33190
Mack Hollins1130

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen18/2522431
Matt Barkley6/1316411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Williams12635.32
Zack Moss382.70
Devin Singletary372.30
Josh Allen231.50
Isaiah McKenzie200.00
Matt Barkley3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gabe Davis251071
Stefon Diggs78760
John Brown44721
Isaiah McKenzie69652
Dawson Knox28290
Antonio Williams11200
Zack Moss11130
Devin Singletary1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

6.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.83
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.16
  • Expected margin+3.38