2020 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

26·23

49ers

San Francisco

QB C.J. Beathard

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

SEA -7

Total

45

Model margin

+1.8est.

SF perspective

Push chance

4.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge map49ers
  • +0.105EPA / play+0.010
  • 48.8%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.013EPA / rush-0.106
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +6.78CPOE-1.74
  • 39.6%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 72.6%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
  • 2.52Points / drive2.03
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–SF
SEAQ1 15:0058Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:5639Punt0–0
SEAQ1 10:5139Punt0–0
SFQ1 9:32617Punt0–0
SEAQ1 6:36951Field goal3–0
SFQ1 2:0933Punt3–0
SEAQ1 0:301158Field goal6–0
SFQ2 9:273-5Punt6–0
SEAQ2 8:063-9Punt6–0
SFQ2 6:361071Field goal6–3
SEAQ2 0:251-11End of half6–3
SFQ3 15:00938Field goal6–6
SEAQ3 9:3132Punt6–6
SFQ3 8:30434Field goal6–9
SEAQ3 6:1931Punt6–9
SFQ3 5:061173Touchdown6–16
SEAQ4 14:22860Touchdown12–16
SFQ4 10:54621Punt12–16
SEAQ4 7:461485Touchdown19–16
SFQ4 2:202-8Turnover19–16
SEAQ4 2:10322Touchdown26–16
SFQ4 1:49975Touchdown26–23
SEAQ4 0:2315End of half26–23

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson20/3618120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson11444.00
Russell Wilson5295.80
Alex Collins5295.81
Rashaad Penny6193.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett1214902
Chris Carson22390
DK Metcalf39210
Will Dissly12200
Jacob Hollister1360
David Moore1150
Freddie Swain0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Beathard25/3727310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson20763.81
C.J. Beathard3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendrick Bourne56760
George Kittle79680
Richie James35660
Ross Dwelley22210
River Cracraft22170
Jeff Wilson37121
Jerick McKinnon1160
Charlie Woerner1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -74.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

4.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

40.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.28
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.84