Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
45
Model margin
+1.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
4.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play+0.010
- 48.8%Success rate45.8%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.013EPA / rush-0.106
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.4%
- +6.78CPOE-1.74
- 39.6%Third-down rate39.6%
- 72.6%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
- 2.52Points / drive2.03
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/36 | 181 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Rashaad Penny | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 12 | 14 | 90 | 2 |
| Chris Carson | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 9 | 21 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Beathard | 25/37 | 273 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 20 | 76 | 3.8 | 1 |
| C.J. Beathard | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 5 | 6 | 76 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 7 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Richie James | 3 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 3 | 7 | 12 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
40.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.28
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.84