Closing spread
TEN -7
Total
55.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.189EPA / play+0.093
- 50.8%Success rate47.8%
- +0.297EPA / dropback+0.211
- +0.070EPA / rush-0.193
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.7%
- +2.16CPOE+6.51
- 47.4%Third-down rate43.5%
- 76.8%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 2.85Points / drive2.25
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 18/27 | 216 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 34 | 250 | 7.4 | 2 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 10 | 11 | 151 | 1 |
| Corey Davis | 5 | 11 | 39 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 28/39 | 365 | 3 | 1 |
| AJ McCarron | 1/1 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 14 | 84 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 11 | 16 | 166 | 2 |
| Keke Coutee | 6 | 7 | 90 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 5 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Steven Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Chad Hansen | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
49.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.31
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.40