2020 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

41·38

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

TEN -7

Total

55.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

4.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapTexans
  • +0.189EPA / play+0.093
  • 50.8%Success rate47.8%
  • +0.297EPA / dropback+0.211
  • +0.070EPA / rush-0.193
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +2.16CPOE+6.51
  • 47.4%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 76.8%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 2.85Points / drive2.25
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00428Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:33635Punt0–0
HOUQ1 9:0134Turnover0–0
TENQ1 7:3632Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 6:411167Field goal3–3
TENQ1 1:42470Touchdown10–3
HOUQ2 14:511051Field goal10–6
TENQ2 8:15775Touchdown17–6
HOUQ2 4:291155Field goal17–9
TENQ2 0:1000End of half17–9
TENQ3 15:001075Touchdown24–9
HOUQ3 9:53564Touchdown24–15
TENQ3 8:08877Touchdown31–15
HOUQ3 4:29365Touchdown31–21
TENQ3 2:5913Turnover31–21
HOUQ3 2:52328Touchdown31–28
TENQ3 1:20911Turnover on downs31–28
HOUQ4 13:13637Touchdown31–35
TENQ4 10:142089Touchdown38–35
HOUQ4 1:42758Field goal38–38
TENQ4 0:18256Field goal41–38

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill18/2721610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry342507.42
Ryan Tannehill7385.42

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown10111511
Corey Davis511390
Anthony Firkser22180
Jonnu Smith1280
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson28/3936531
AJ McCarron1/12000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson14846.01
Deshaun Watson3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks11161662
Keke Coutee67900
Pharaoh Brown55481
David Johnson35360
Steven Mitchell11200
Chad Hansen24160
Jordan Akins1290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

4.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.1%

Expected total

49.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.40