Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
42
Model margin
+0.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.105
- 44.6%Success rate48.8%
- +0.032EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.013
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.6%
- +0.37CPOE+6.78
- 44.2%Third-down rate39.6%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate72.6%
- 1.76Points / drive2.52
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 9/19 | 155 | 1 | 0 |
| John Wolford | 3/6 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 28 | 131 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Malcolm Brown | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| John Wolford | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 8 | 48 | 1 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 11/27 | 174 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 16 | 77 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 50 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 11 | 96 | 2 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
38.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.90