2020 · WC · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB John Wolford

30·20

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 39°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

42

Model margin

+0.9est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.013EPA / play+0.105
  • 44.6%Success rate48.8%
  • +0.032EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.013
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +0.37CPOE+6.78
  • 44.2%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate72.6%
  • 1.76Points / drive2.52
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 28–24 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ SEA27–31SEA
2025 · W16LA @ SEA37–38SEA
2025 · W11SEA @ LA19–21RAMS
2024 · W18SEA @ LA30–25SEA
2024 · W9LA @ SEA26–20RAMS
2023 · W11SEA @ LA16–17RAMS
2023 · W1LA @ SEA30–13RAMS
2022 · W18LA @ SEA16–19SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–SEA
LAQ1 15:00612Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:5233Punt0–0
LAQ1 10:201158Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 3:524-4Punt3–0
LAQ1 0:5530Punt3–0
SEAQ1 0:17427Punt3–0
LAQ2 13:2332Punt3–0
SEAQ2 12:19419Field goal3–3
LAQ2 10:29554Field goal6–3
SEAQ2 7:51322Opp touchdown13–3
SEAQ2 6:40579Touchdown13–10
LAQ2 3:43570Touchdown20–10
SEAQ2 1:5739Punt20–10
LAQ2 1:21620Turnover on downs20–10
SEAQ3 15:0037Field goal20–13
LAQ3 13:453-4Punt20–13
SEAQ3 12:16518Punt20–13
LAQ3 9:5134Punt20–13
SEAQ3 8:2531Punt20–13
LAQ3 7:23513Punt20–13
SEAQ3 5:21813Punt20–13
LAQ3 1:40852Field goal23–13
SEAQ4 11:33419Punt23–13
LAQ4 9:2139Punt23–13
LAQ4 7:02436Touchdown30–13
SEAQ4 4:46876Touchdown30–20
LAQ4 2:2849Turnover on downs30–20
SEAQ4 1:554-11Turnover on downs30–20
LAQ4 1:2400End of half30–20

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff9/1915510
John Wolford3/62900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers281314.71
Malcolm Brown9303.30
Jared Goff441.00
John Wolford122.00
Robert Woods1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp49780
Robert Woods48481
Cam Akers22450
Malcolm Brown1190
Tyler Higbee1340
Gerald Everett0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson11/2717421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson16774.80
Russell Wilson45012.50
Carlos Hyde451.30
David Moore144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf511962
Tyler Lockett24430
Freddie Swain11280
Chris Carson1250
David Moore1110
Will Dissly1210
Jacob Hollister0500

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

38.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.13
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.90