Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play+0.070
- 41.8%Success rate48.6%
- +0.028EPA / dropback+0.133
- -0.180EPA / rush-0.012
- 6.7%Explosive rate11.1%
- -0.02CPOE+2.93
- 41.1%Third-down rate45.5%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 1.58Points / drive2.41
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 16/27 | 202 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 7 | 81 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 5 | 61 | 1 |
| Myles Gaskin | 5 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 29/39 | 281 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 23 | 100 | 4.3 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 5 | 7 | 72 | 1 |
| James White | 6 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.09
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.80