2021 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

17·16

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 81°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

NE -3.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.046EPA / play+0.070
  • 41.8%Success rate48.6%
  • +0.028EPA / dropback+0.133
  • -0.180EPA / rush-0.012
  • 6.7%Explosive rate11.1%
  • -0.02CPOE+2.93
  • 41.1%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 61.3%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 1.58Points / drive2.41
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 30–25 since 1999

NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8NE @ MIA24–19NE
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NE
NEQ1 15:00738Punt0–0
MIAQ1 10:341080Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 5:29422Turnover7–0
MIAQ1 3:283-11Punt7–0
NEQ1 2:131473Field goal7–3
MIAQ2 10:17523Punt7–3
NEQ2 9:11416Punt7–3
MIAQ2 7:4135Punt7–3
NEQ2 6:06854Touchdown7–10
MIAQ2 2:30745Field goal10–10
MIAQ3 15:00975Touchdown17–10
NEQ3 10:511677Field goal17–13
MIAQ3 2:503-5Punt17–13
NEQ3 1:131372Field goal17–16
MIAQ4 10:36523Turnover17–16
NEQ4 8:07941Turnover17–16
MIAQ4 3:31626End of half17–16

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa16/2720211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Myles Gaskin9495.40
Malcolm Brown5163.20
Jacoby Brissett242.00
Salvon Ahmed341.30
Tua Tagovailoa410.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker47810
Jaylen Waddle45611
Myles Gaskin55270
Salvon Ahmed23240
Durham Smythe1290
Albert Wilson0200
Mike Gesicki0300

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones29/3928110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Harris231004.30
James White4123.00
Jonnu Smith166.00
Brandon Bolden155.00
Rhamondre Stevenson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nelson Agholor57721
James White67490
Jakobi Meyers69440
Jonnu Smith55420
Hunter Henry33310
Kendrick Bourne13170
Damien Harris23170
Rhamondre Stevenson1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.80